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Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Tian, Baoqiang;  Fan, Ke
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Beaufort Sea  climate prediction  extreme heavy precipitation  sea-ice concentration  southern Indian Ocean  SST  Yangtze River valley  
Impacts of Representing Heterogeneous Distribution of Cloud Liquid and Ice on Phase Partitioning of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds with NCAR CAM5 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (23) : 13071-13090
作者:  Zhang, Meng;  39;Alessandro, John J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:2/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Impacts of Representing Heterogeneous Distribution of Cloud Liquid and Ice on Phase Partitioning of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds with NCAR CAM5 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019
作者:  Zhang, Meng;  39;Alessandre, John J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:2/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019
作者:  Tian, Baoqiang;  Fan, Ke
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Prediction skill  Early and late winter  East Asian winter monsoon  Subseasonal ENSO-EAWM relation  CFSv2  Year-to-year increment prediction  
A Region-Dependent Seasonal Forecasting Framework for Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Western North Pacific 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (23) : 8415-8435
作者:  Wang, Chao;  Wang, Bin;  Wu, Liguang
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Tropical cyclones  Seasonal forecasting  
Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7237-7250
作者:  Elders, Akiko;  Pegion, Kathy
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Arctic  Sea ice  Climate change  Mid-latitude winter weather  North American Multi-Model Ensemble  
Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7321-7334
作者:  Singh, Bohar;  Cash, Ben;  Kinter, James L., III
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Indian Monsoon  Interannual variability  Teleconnections  
More reliable coastal SST forecasts from the North American multimodel ensemble 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7153-7168
作者:  Hervieux, G.;  Alexander, M. A.;  Stock, C. A.;  Jacox, M. G.;  Pegion, K.;  Becker, E.;  Castruccio, F.;  Tommasi, D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Seasonal prediction  SST anomaly  Coastal ecosystems  Climate models  Multimodel ensemble forecast  
On the interpretation of seasonal Southern Africa precipitation prediction skill estimates during Austral summer 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (11) : 6769-6783
作者:  Hoell, Andrew;  Eischeid, Jon
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17