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DOI | 10.1002/joc.6446 |
Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea | |
Tian, Baoqiang1,2; Fan, Ke1,2,3 | |
2019-12-26 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Three statistical prediction models for the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) based on the winter sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO-SST; Scheme-SST), the spring sea-ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (Scheme-SIC), and both predictors (Scheme-SS), are established by using the year-to-year increment method. The winter SIO-SST may affect the SST anomaly in the east of Australia via a teleconnection pattern. The east of Australia SST signal in winter continues until the following summer and then affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV via modulation of the meridional Hadley circulation in the western North Pacific. The positive Beaufort SIC anomaly may result in a negative summer SST anomaly by the increased surface albedo. In response, the atmospheric circulation presents a dipole anomaly distribution in the Beaufort Sea and the Barents Sea. The Arctic dipole anomaly may bring about frequent extreme precipitation in the MLYRV by adjusting the position of the East Asian westerly jet and Eurasian teleconnection pattern. The prediction skill of the summer EPF for Scheme-SS is higher than that of Scheme-SST and Scheme-SIC in the cross-validation test during 1962-2017 and the independent hindcast during 1992-2017. Scheme-SS shows a higher prediction skill of the summer EPF than that of Scheme-SST and Scheme-SIC, with a time correlation coefficient of 0.62, accounting for 39% of the total variance, of which 35% is the winter SIO-SST and 4% the spring Beaufort SIC. Scheme-SS not only shows a rather high predictive ability for the anomalous summer EPF but can also reproduce the increasing trend of extremely heavy precipitation. |
英文关键词 | Beaufort Sea climate prediction extreme heavy precipitation sea-ice concentration southern Indian Ocean SST Yangtze River valley |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000504443700001 |
WOS关键词 | INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; STATISTICAL PREDICTION ; ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION ; TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; QUASI-PERIODICITIES ; FORECAST MODEL ; LOWER REACHES ; BASIN ; CHINA ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225536 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tian, Baoqiang,Fan, Ke. Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Tian, Baoqiang,&Fan, Ke.(2019).Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Tian, Baoqiang,et al."Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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