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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-05068-6 |
Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season | |
Tian, Baoqiang1; Fan, Ke1,2 | |
2019-12-04 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in early (November-December, ND) and late winter (January-February, JF) is investigated based on the NCEP's Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), at different lead months. Results show that the prediction skill of ND-EAWM is higher than that of JF-EAWM. ND-EAWM can be reasonably reproduced by CFSv2 with initial conditions from the previous May to November, whereas with initial conditions from the previous July to January it has little forecasting skill for predicting JF-EAWM. The difference in the impacts of ENSO between early and late winter may influence the ENSO-EAWM relationship and cause the subseasonal change. As the seasonality of the ENSO cycle changes from early winter to late winter, the anomalous tropical east-west Walker circulation system shifts from a double-cell to a single-cell regime. The double-cell regime in early winter is usually accompanied by intense tropical convection localized in the Maritime Continent. ENSO-related anomalous convection strongly influences the EAWM through a systematic wave train pattern. However, ENSO cannot easily influence the EAWM in late winter through this process when the turnabout of ENSO commences in late winter. CFSv2 can successfully reproduce this physical process of ENSO affecting the EAWM in early winter. It is also found that the year-to-year increment approach may enhance the skill of CFSv2 in predicting the EAWM in late winter. |
英文关键词 | Prediction skill Early and late winter East Asian winter monsoon Subseasonal ENSO-EAWM relation CFSv2 Year-to-year increment prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000500679100001 |
WOS关键词 | NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; INDIAN-OCEAN SST ; EL-NINO ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; SUMMER MONSOON ; WEAKENING RELATIONSHIP ; WAVE-ACTIVITY ; ENSO ; PREDICTABILITY ; MODES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224309 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tian, Baoqiang,Fan, Ke. Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019. |
APA | Tian, Baoqiang,&Fan, Ke.(2019).Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season.CLIMATE DYNAMICS. |
MLA | Tian, Baoqiang,et al."Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019). |
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