Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0006.1 |
A Region-Dependent Seasonal Forecasting Framework for Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Western North Pacific | |
Wang, Chao1,2,3; Wang, Bin2,3,4; Wu, Liguang1 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:23页码:8415-8435 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | It has been a common practice to predict total tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the entire western North Pacific (WNP). Here we show that TC genesis (TCG) exhibits distinct regional variability and sources of predictability. Therefore, we divide the WNP into four quadrants with 140 degrees E and 17 degrees N being dividing lines plus the South China Sea (SCS) to predict five subregional TCG frequencies as well as the entire WNP TCG frequency. Besides the well-known ENSO-induced seesaw relationship between the TCGs in the southeast and northwest quadrants, we found that 1) an enhanced TCG in the northeast WNP is associated with a pronounced anomalous cyclonic circulation, which is maintained through its interaction with the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies; 2) an active TCG in the southwest WNP is accompanied by a zonally elongated positive vorticity anomaly and SST warming over the equatorial eastern Pacific; and 3) the SCS TCG is influenced by the upper-level South Asia high through modulating large-scale environmental parameters. Physically meaningful predictors are identified and a set of empirical prediction models for TCG frequency is established for each subregion. Both the cross-validated reforecast for 1965-2000 and independent forecast for 2001-16 show significant temporal correlation skills. Moreover, the sum of the predicted TCG frequency in five subregions yields a basinwide TCG frequency prediction with a temporal correlation skill of 0.76 for the independent forecast period of 2001-16. The results indicate its potential utility to improve the TC forecasting in the WNP. |
英文关键词 | Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000497769200003 |
WOS关键词 | UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ; EAST-INDIAN OCEAN ; SOUTH CHINA ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; TYPHOON FREQUENCY ; EL-NINO ; ENSO ; PREDICTION ; SUMMER ; MONSOON |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225648 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change,Colla, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Earth Syst Modeling Ctr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Chao,Wang, Bin,Wu, Liguang. A Region-Dependent Seasonal Forecasting Framework for Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Western North Pacific[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(23):8415-8435. |
APA | Wang, Chao,Wang, Bin,&Wu, Liguang.(2019).A Region-Dependent Seasonal Forecasting Framework for Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Western North Pacific.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(23),8415-8435. |
MLA | Wang, Chao,et al."A Region-Dependent Seasonal Forecasting Framework for Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Western North Pacific".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.23(2019):8415-8435. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论