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Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming 期刊论文
Environmental Research Letters, 2020
作者:  Sebastian Sippel;  Erich M Fischer;  Simon C Scherrer;  Nicolai Meinshausen;  Reto Knutti
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/09/08
Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Jezequel, Aglae;  39;Andrea, Fabio
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
climate change  extreme events  thermodynamics  dynamics  attribution  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Effect of atmospheric circulation on recent temperature changes in Finland 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 5675-5687
作者:  Raisanen, Jouni
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atmospheric circulation  Trajectory  Temperature  Climate change  Finland  CMIP5  
Projections of climate changes over mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during boreal spring: uncertainty due to internal variability 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 6309-6327
作者:  Chen, Shangfeng;  Wu, Renguang;  Chen, Wen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Boreal spring  Eurasia  Internal variability  External forcing  Uncertainty  
Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979-2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Gong, Hainan;  Wang, Lin;  Chen, Wen;  Wu, Renguang
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
East Asia  temperature trend  external forcing  internal variability  dynamical adjustment  quantitative analysis  
A 1D RCE Study of Factors Affecting the Tropical Tropopause Layer and Surface Climate 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (20) : 6769-6782
作者:  Dacie, Sally;  Kluft, Lukas;  Schmidt, Hauke;  Stevens, Bjorn;  Buehler, Stefan A.;  Nowack, Peer J.;  Dietmueller, Simone;  Abraham, N. Luke;  Birner, Thomas
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Radiative-convective equilibrium  Tropopause  Climate sensitivity  Ozone  Single column models  
Uncovering the Forced Climate Response from a Single Ensemble Member Using Statistical Learning 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (17) : 5677-5699
作者:  Sippel, Sebastian;  Meinshausen, Nicolai;  Merrifield, Anna;  Lehner, Flavio;  Pendergrass, Angeline G.;  Fischer, Erich;  Knutti, Reto
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atmospheric circulation  Climate change  Climate prediction  Regression analysis  Statistical techniques  Climate variability  
Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2229-2247
作者:  Harrington, Luke J.;  Otto, Friederike E. L.;  Cowan, Tim;  Hegerl, Gabriele C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Circulation analogues  Heatwaves  Extreme weather events  Signal-to-noise ratios  Climate change  
Observational Constraint on the Radius and Oblateness of the Lunar Core-Mantle Boundary 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 46 (13) : 7295-7303
作者:  Viswanathan, V.;  Rambaux, N.;  Fienga, A.;  Laskar, J.;  Gastineau, M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:1/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27