Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab86f2 |
Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming | |
Sebastian Sippel; Erich M Fischer; Simon C Scherrer; Nicolai Meinshausen; Reto Knutti | |
2020-09-03 | |
发表期刊 | Environmental Research Letters
![]() |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Cold season temperatures in Europe have increased rapidly by about 1.2°C in the late 1980s, followed by relatively modest and regionally flat temperature trends thereafter. The abrupt change affected the entire European continent and coincided regionally with abrupt hydroclimatic changes such as a widespread reduction in snow days in Switzerland. However, the drivers and causes of the event are not well understood. Using a dynamical adjustment method based on statistical learning, we find that the continental-scale late 1980s abrupt winter warming and regional decreases in snow days can be attributed to cold conditions in the mid-1980s followed by a few exceptionally warm seasons. Both are caused by random atmospheric circulation variability superimposed upon a long-term and relatively homogenous warming trend, and do not require an external cause or change of the underlying dynamics of the system. This explanation is consistent with simulations from a 21-member regional climate model ensemble, in which four members display comparable abrupt temperature increases regionally driven by circulation and a long-term externally forced response. Overall, our analysis provides an observation-based interpretation of abrupt temperature change at the continental scale, associated hydroclimatic changes regionally, and its drivers. Furthermore, our method might contribute to improved mechanistic understanding of different observed climate phenomena in many regions of the world that experience high variability. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/293010 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sebastian Sippel,Erich M Fischer,Simon C Scherrer,et al. Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Sebastian Sippel,Erich M Fischer,Simon C Scherrer,Nicolai Meinshausen,&Reto Knutti.(2020).Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming.Environmental Research Letters. |
MLA | Sebastian Sippel,et al."Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming".Environmental Research Letters (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论