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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2 |
Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave | |
Harrington, Luke J.1; Otto, Friederike E. L.1; Cowan, Tim2,3,4; Hegerl, Gabriele C.2 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:2229-2247 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Scotland; Australia |
英文摘要 | The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly expanded in recent years, with numerous studies dedicated to determining whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of specific extreme weather events occurring. However, the majority of such studies have focussed on extreme events which have occurred in the recent past (usually within the past 10 years) while minimal research efforts have considered the multitude of high-impact extreme climatic events which occurred throughout the instrumental record. This study proposes a framework to quantify how the likelihood of witnessing meteorological characteristics reminiscent of the 1947 Central European heatwave have evolved over time. We specifically examine circulation analogues as a tool to understand the relative role of dynamical and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the probability of experiencing similar heatwave events. Using a reanalysis-based dataset, our results show changes in the frequency of 1947-like extreme heat throughout the twentieth century to be highly sensitive to methodological choices, particularly in the context of disaggregating dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the risk of extreme heat. Evidence also suggests clear decadal variability in the occurrence of circulation patterns conducive to the 1947 heatwaves. Finally, we discuss how to appropriately consider the time-evolution of attribution statements, as well as the broader limitations of employing circulation analogues as a method to interrogate the dynamical contribution to the probability ratio of an extreme event. |
英文关键词 | Circulation analogues Heatwaves Extreme weather events Signal-to-noise ratios Climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475558800057 |
WOS关键词 | ATTRIBUTION STATEMENTS ; DYNAMICAL ADJUSTMENT ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; BLOCKING ; WEATHER ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; MECHANISMS ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185451 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England; 2.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, James Hutton Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, Midlothian, Scotland; 3.Univ Southern Queensland, 700 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia; 4.Bur Meteorol, 700 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harrington, Luke J.,Otto, Friederike E. L.,Cowan, Tim,et al. Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:2229-2247. |
APA | Harrington, Luke J.,Otto, Friederike E. L.,Cowan, Tim,&Hegerl, Gabriele C..(2019).Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,2229-2247. |
MLA | Harrington, Luke J.,et al."Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):2229-2247. |
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