GSTDTAP

浏览/检索结果: 共72条,第1-10条 帮助

限定条件        
已选(0)清除 条数/页:   排序方式:
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7461-7477
作者:  Villarini, Gabriele;  Luitel, Beda;  Vecchi, Gabriel A.;  Ghosh, Joyee
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7479-7495
作者:  Kang, Daehyun;  Lee, Myong-In
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Seasonal prediction  East Asian Winter Monsoon  ENSO  Teleconnection  Decadal variability  
A dynamical statistical framework for seasonal streamflow forecasting in an agricultural watershed 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7429-7445
作者:  Slater, Louise J.;  Villarini, Gabriele;  Bradley, A. Allen;  Vecchi, Gabriel A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Seasonal forecasting  Probabilistic forecast  Streamflow forecasts  North-American Multi Model ensemble (NMME)  
Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7305-7320
作者:  Rodrigues, Luis R. L.;  Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.;  Coelho, Caio A. S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Climate prediction  Multimodel ensemble  Forecast quality assessment  Forecast assimilation  
NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7267-7285
作者:  Harnos, Daniel S.;  Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.;  Wang, Hui;  Finan, Christina A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Tropical cyclone  Hurricane  Typhoon  North American Multimodel Ensemble  Interannual variability  Seasonal prediction  
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity by S2S and NMME Models 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (22) : 12057-12077
作者:  Zheng, Cheng;  Chang, Edmund Kar-Man;  Kim, Hyemi;  Zhang, Minghua;  Wang, Wanqiu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Deterministic Skill of Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the East Africa-West Asia Sector from September to May 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (22) : 11887-11896
作者:  Vigaud, N.;  Tippett, M. K.;  Robertson, A. W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
S2S rainfall forecasts show statistically significant skill in the East Africa-West Asia sector out to Week 4  Forecast skill of dynamical models exceeds that of statistical models based on ENSO and the MJO  Tropical-temperate interactions may represent a new source of S2S predictability  
An empirical prediction approach for seasonal fire risk in the boreal forests 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Eden, Jonathan M.;  Krikken, Folmer;  Drobyshev, Igor
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
empirical modelling  forecasting (methods)  forest fire  seasonal prediction  
Skilful Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Dunstone, Nick;  Smith, Doug;  Hardiman, Steven;  Eade, Rosie;  Gordon, Margaret;  Hermanson, Leon;  Kay, Gillian;  Scaife, Adam
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
seasonal prediction  European  rainfall  summer  North Atlantic