GSTDTAP
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3369-z
Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity
Villarini, Gabriele1; Luitel, Beda1; Vecchi, Gabriel A.2; Ghosh, Joyee3
2019-12-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号53期号:12页码:7461-7477
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage. Skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. This study focuses on the development of statistical-dynamical seasonal forecasting systems for different quantities related to the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic TCs. These models use only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational records because they reflect the importance of both local and non-local effects on the genesis and development of TCs in the North Atlantic basin. A set of retrospective forecasts of SSTs by six experimental seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are used as covariates. The retrospective forecasts are performed over the period 1982-2015. The skill of these statistical-dynamical models is quantified for different quantities (basin-wide number of tropical storms and hurricanes, power dissipation index and accumulated cyclone energy) for forecasts initialized as early as November of the year prior to the season to forecast. The results of this work show that it is possible to obtain skillful retrospective forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity with a long lead time. Moreover, probabilistic forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity for the 2016 season are provided.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000495247200021
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SEASONAL HURRICANE FREQUENCY ; DISSIPATION INDEX PDI ; EL-NINO ; UNITED-STATES ; LA-NINA ; PREDICTION ; SENSITIVITY ; ENERGY ; ENSO
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224303
专题环境与发展全球科技态势
作者单位1.Univ Iowa, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, 306 C Maxwell Stanley Hydraul Lab, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA;
2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA;
3.Univ Iowa, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA
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GB/T 7714
Villarini, Gabriele,Luitel, Beda,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,et al. Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(12):7461-7477.
APA Villarini, Gabriele,Luitel, Beda,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,&Ghosh, Joyee.(2019).Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(12),7461-7477.
MLA Villarini, Gabriele,et al."Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.12(2019):7461-7477.
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