Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084659 |
Skilful Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018 | |
Dunstone, Nick1; Smith, Doug1; Hardiman, Steven1; Eade, Rosie1; Gordon, Margaret1; Hermanson, Leon1; Kay, Gillian1; Scaife, Adam1,2 | |
2019-11-06 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | The Northern European summer of 2018 was the driest for 35 years with resulting impacts on health, agriculture, energy, and water resources. Here we show that this rainfall anomaly was well predicted by a real-time seasonal forecast. An anticyclonic circulation anomaly was correctly forecast over the North Sea and Scandinavia in 2018 and also in the 1976 record dry summer. In both these exceptionally dry summers, a similar tripole anomaly pattern of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures was present. We perform perturbation experiments that reveal significant circulation, and European rainfall, responses due to changes in the Atlantic meridional temperature gradient. However, consistent with previous work, we find that the model dynamical response is weak relative to that observed and hence large ensembles are required to produce sufficiently skilful predictions. This case study illustrates the potential for the development of summer European climate services. |
英文关键词 | seasonal prediction European rainfall summer North Atlantic |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494602500001 |
WOS关键词 | ATLANTIC-OCEAN ; CLIMATE ; PREDICTIONS ; PRECIPITATION ; CIRCULATION ; SST |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188260 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dunstone, Nick,Smith, Doug,Hardiman, Steven,et al. Skilful Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019. |
APA | Dunstone, Nick.,Smith, Doug.,Hardiman, Steven.,Eade, Rosie.,Gordon, Margaret.,...&Scaife, Adam.(2019).Skilful Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. |
MLA | Dunstone, Nick,et al."Skilful Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论