Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6363 |
An empirical prediction approach for seasonal fire risk in the boreal forests | |
Eden, Jonathan M.1; Krikken, Folmer2; Drobyshev, Igor3,4 | |
2019-11-10 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Netherlands; Sweden; Canada |
英文摘要 | The ability to predict forest fire risk at monthly, seasonal and above-annual time scales is critical to mitigate its impacts, including fire-driven dynamics of ecosystem and socio-economic services. Fire is the primary driving factor of the ecosystem dynamics in the boreal forest, directly affecting global carbon balance and atmospheric concentrations of the trace gases including carbon dioxide. Resilience of the ocean-atmosphere system provides potential for advanced detection of upcoming fire season intensity. Here, we report on the development of a probabilistic empirical prediction system for forest fire risk on monthly-to-seasonal timescales across the circumboreal region. Quasi-operational ensemble forecasts are generated for monthly drought code (MDC), an established indicator for seasonal fire activity in the Boreal biome based on monthly maximum temperature and precipitation values. Historical MDC forecasts are validated against observations, with good skill found across northern Eurasia and North America. In addition, we show that the MDC forecasts are an excellent indicator for satellite-derived observations of burned area in large parts of the Boreal region. Our discussion considers the relative value of forecast information to a range of stakeholders when disseminated before and during the fire season. We also discuss the wider role of empirical predictions in benchmarking dynamical forecast systems and in conveying forecast information in a simple and digestible manner. |
英文关键词 | empirical modelling forecasting (methods) forest fire seasonal prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495424900001 |
WOS关键词 | CARBON EMISSIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PREDICTABILITY ; ECOREGIONS ; FREQUENCY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225416 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Coventry Univ, CAWR, Coventry, W Midlands, England; 2.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; 3.Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Southern Swedish Forest Res Ctr, Alnarp, Sweden; 4.Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, Rouyn Noranda, PQ, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eden, Jonathan M.,Krikken, Folmer,Drobyshev, Igor. An empirical prediction approach for seasonal fire risk in the boreal forests[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Eden, Jonathan M.,Krikken, Folmer,&Drobyshev, Igor.(2019).An empirical prediction approach for seasonal fire risk in the boreal forests.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Eden, Jonathan M.,et al."An empirical prediction approach for seasonal fire risk in the boreal forests".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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