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A Stochastic Unified Convection Scheme (UNICON). Part I: Formulation and Single-Column Simulation for Shallow Convection 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 77 (2) : 583-610
作者:  Shin, Jihoon;  Park, Sungsu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Convection  Convective clouds  Convective parameterization  Stochastic models  
Variability of Millennial-Scale Trends in the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Buffett, B.;  Davis, W.;  Avery, M. S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
secular variation  geomagnetic reversals  stochastic models  
Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
Why Do Precipitation Intensities Tend to Follow Gamma Distributions? 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (11) : 3611-3631
作者:  Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian;  Neelin, J. David
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Convection  Precipitation  Climate change  Moisture  moisture budget  Statistics  Stochastic models  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (22) : 7837-7855
作者:  Jing, Renzhi;  Lin, Ning
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Atmosphere  Hurricanes  typhoons  Climatology  Statistical forecasting  Stochastic models  Risk assessment  
Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (22) : 7597-7609
作者:  Buerger, G.;  Pfister, A.;  Bronstert, A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Extreme events  Rainfall  Climate change  Statistical techniques  Time series  Stochastic models  
Pair Correlations and Spatial Statistics of Deep Convection over the Tropical Atlantic 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (10) : 3211-3228
作者:  Senf, Fabian;  Brueck, Matthias;  Klocke, Daniel
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atlantic Ocean  Intertropical convergence zone  Deep convection  Mass fluxes  transport  Statistical techniques  Stochastic models  
Multi-site multivariate downscaling of global climate model outputs: an integrated framework combining quantile mapping, stochastic weather generator and Empirical Copula approaches 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 52: 5775-5799
作者:  Li, Xin;  Babovic, Vladan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Multi-site multivariate downscaling  Global climate models  Quantile mapping  Stochastic weather generator  Empirical Copula  
Subgrid Parameterizations of the Eddy-Eddy, Eddy-Mean Field, Eddy-Topographic, Mean Field-Mean Field, and Mean Field-Topographic Interactions in Atmospheric Models 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (2) : 457-477
作者:  Kitsios, Vassili;  Frederiksen, Jorgen S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Atmosphere  Turbulence  Statistical techniques  Quasigeostrophic models  Stochastic models  Subgrid-scale processes  
Statistical occurrence and mechanisms of the 2014-2016 delayed super El Nino captured by a simple dynamical model 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 52: 2351-2366
作者:  Thual, Sulian;  Majda, Andrew J.;  Chen, Nan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:2/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Delayed super El Nino  Simple dynamical models  Stochastic wind bursts  Ensemble experiments