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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0027.1 |
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process | |
Jing, Renzhi; Lin, Ning | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:22页码:7837-7855 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of storm intensity change and associates each state with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's transit from one state to another is described as a Markov chain. Both the intensity change and state transit components of the model are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity, and ocean feedback. This Markov Environment-Dependent Hurricane Intensity Model (MeHiM) is used to simulate the evolution of storm intensity along the storm track over the ocean, and a simple decay model is added to estimate the intensity change when the storm moves over land. Data for the North Atlantic (NA) basin from 1979 to 2014 (555 storms) are used for model development and evaluation. Probability distributions of 6- and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity based on model simulations and observations compare well. Although the MeHiM is still limited in fully describing rapid intensification, it shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models). |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Hurricanes typhoons Climatology Statistical forecasting Stochastic models Risk assessment |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494453300004 |
WOS关键词 | PREDICTION SCHEME SHIPS ; RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; POTENTIAL INTENSITY ; ATLANTIC ; INDEX ; WINDS ; DECAY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225625 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jing, Renzhi,Lin, Ning. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(22):7837-7855. |
APA | Jing, Renzhi,&Lin, Ning.(2019).Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(22),7837-7855. |
MLA | Jing, Renzhi,et al."Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.22(2019):7837-7855. |
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