Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL085909 |
Variability of Millennial-Scale Trends in the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole | |
Buffett, B.; Davis, W.; Avery, M. S. | |
2019-12-27 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The historical trend in the axial dipole is sufficient to reverse the field in less than 2 kyr. Assessing the prospect of an imminent polarity reversal depends on the probability of sustaining the historical trend for long enough to produce a reversal. We use a stochastic model to predict the variability of trends for arbitrary time windows. Our predictions agree well with the trends computed from paleomagnetic models. Applying these predictions to the historical record shows that the current trend is likely due to natural variability. Furthermore, an extrapolation of the current trend for the next 1 to 2 kyr is highly unlikely. Instead, we compute the trend and time window needed to reverse the field with a specified probability. We find that the dipole could reverse in the next 20 kyr with a probability of 2%. |
英文关键词 | secular variation geomagnetic reversals stochastic models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000504536500001 |
WOS关键词 | STOCHASTIC-MODELS ; FLUCTUATIONS ; TIMESCALES |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225255 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Buffett, B.,Davis, W.,Avery, M. S.. Variability of Millennial-Scale Trends in the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019. |
APA | Buffett, B.,Davis, W.,&Avery, M. S..(2019).Variability of Millennial-Scale Trends in the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. |
MLA | Buffett, B.,et al."Variability of Millennial-Scale Trends in the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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