Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1 |
Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall | |
Buerger, G.1; Pfister, A.2; Bronstert, A.1 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:22页码:7597-7609 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Estimates of present and future extreme sub-hourly rainfall are derived from a daily spatial followed by a sub-daily temporal downscaling, the latter of which incorporates a novel, and crucial, temperature sensitivity. Specifically, daily global climate fields are spatially downscaled to local temperature T and precipitation P, which are then disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 min using a multiplicative random cascade model. The scheme is calibrated and validated with a group of 21 station records of 10-min resolution in Germany. The cascade model is used in the classical (denoted as MC) and in the new T-sensitive (MC+) version, which respects local Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) effects such as CC scaling. Extreme P is positively biased in both MC versions. Observed T sensitivity is absent in MC but well reproduced by MC+. Long-term positive trends in extreme sub-hourly P are generally more pronounced and more significant in MC+ than in MC. In units of 10-min rainfall, observed centennial trends in annual exceedance counts (EC) of P > 5 mm are +29% and in 3-yr return levels (RL) +27%. For the RCP4.5-simulated future, higher extremes are projected in both versions MC and MC+: per century, EC increases by 30% for MC and by 83% for MC+; the RL rises by 14% for MC and by 33% for MC+. Because the projected daily P trends are negligible, the sub-daily signal is mainly driven by local temperature. |
英文关键词 | Extreme events Rainfall Climate change Statistical techniques Time series Stochastic models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000489889400001 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; FUTURE CHANGES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TIME-SERIES ; INTENSITY ; DISAGGREGATION ; FREQUENCY ; UNCERTAINTY ; GENERATION ; DETACHMENT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188112 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Potsdam, Inst Earth & Environm Sci, Potsdam, Germany; 2.Emschergenossenschaft Lippeverband, Tech Hochwassermanagement, Essen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Buerger, G.,Pfister, A.,Bronstert, A.. Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(22):7597-7609. |
APA | Buerger, G.,Pfister, A.,&Bronstert, A..(2019).Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(22),7597-7609. |
MLA | Buerger, G.,et al."Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.22(2019):7597-7609. |
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