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Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7817) : 554-+
作者:  T. Blackburn;  G. H. Edwards;  S. Tulaczyk;  M. Scudder;  G. Piccione;  B. Hallet;  N. McLean;  J. C. Zachos;  B. Cheney;  J. T. Babbe
收藏  |  浏览/下载:21/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

Uranium isotopes in subglacial precipitates from the Wilkes Basin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet reveal ice retreat during a warm Pleistocene interglacial period about 400,000 years ago.


Efforts to improve sea level forecasting on a warming planet have focused on determining the temperature, sea level and extent of polar ice sheets during Earth'  s past interglacial warm periods(1-3). About 400,000 years ago, during the interglacial period known as Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS11), the global temperature was 1 to 2 degrees Celsius greater(2)and sea level was 6 to 13 metres higher(1,3). Sea level estimates in excess of about 10 metres, however, have been discounted because these require a contribution from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet(3), which has been argued to have remained stable for millions of years before and includes MIS11(4,5). Here we show how the evolution of(234)U enrichment within the subglacial waters of East Antarctica recorded the ice sheet'  s response to MIS11 warming. Within the Wilkes Basin, subglacial chemical precipitates of opal and calcite record accumulation of(234)U (the product of rock-water contact within an isolated subglacial reservoir) up to 20 times higher than that found in marine waters. The timescales of(234)U enrichment place the inception of this reservoir at MIS11. Informed by the(234)U cycling observed in the Laurentide Ice Sheet, where(234)U accumulated during periods of ice stability(6)and was flushed to global oceans in response to deglaciation(7), we interpret our East Antarctic dataset to represent ice loss within the Wilkes Basin at MIS11. The(234)U accumulation within the Wilkes Basin is also observed in the McMurdo Dry Valleys brines(8-10), indicating(11)that the brine originated beneath the adjacent East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The marine origin of brine salts(10)and bacteria(12)implies that MIS11 ice loss was coupled with marine flooding. Collectively, these data indicate that during one of the warmest Pleistocene interglacials, the ice sheet margin at the Wilkes Basin retreated to near the precipitate location, about 700 kilometres inland from the current position of the ice margin, which-assuming current ice volumes-would have contributed about 3 to 4 metres(13)to global sea levels.


  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:56/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Projected effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (3)
作者:  Gudoshava, Masilin;  Misiani, Herbert O.;  Segele, Zewdu T.;  Jain, Suman;  Ouma, Jully O.;  Otieno, George;  Anyah, Richard;  Indasi, Victor S.;  Endris, Hussen Seid;  Osima, Sarah;  Lennard, Christopher;  Zaroug, Modathir;  Mwangi, Emmah;  Nimusiima, Alex;  Kondowe, Alfred;  Ogwang, Bob;  Artan, Guleid;  Atheru, Zachary
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
CORDEX  global warming levels  rainfall onset  cessation  length of rainy season  greater horn of Africa  consecutive wet and dry days  
Oceanic forcing of penultimate deglacial and last interglacial sea-level rise 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7792) : 660-+
作者:  Rizal, Yan;  Westaway, Kira E.;  Zaim, Yahdi;  van den Bergh, Gerrit D.;  Bettis, E. Arthur, III;  Morwood, Michael J.;  Huffman, O. Frank;  Grun, Rainer;  Joannes-Boyau, Renaud;  Bailey, Richard M.;  Sidarto;  Westaway, Michael C.;  Kurniawan, Iwan;  Moore, Mark W.;  Storey, Michael;  Aziz, Fachroel;  Suminto;  Zhao, Jian-xin;  Aswan;  Sipola, Maija E.;  Larick, Roy;  Zonneveld, John-Paul;  Scott, Robert;  Putt, Shelby;  Ciochon, Russell L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Sea-level histories during the two most recent deglacial-interglacial intervals show substantial differences(1-3) despite both periods undergoing similar changes in global mean temperature(4,5) and forcing from greenhouse gases(6). Although the last interglaciation (LIG) experienced stronger boreal summer insolation forcing than the present interglaciation(7), understanding why LIG global mean sea level may have been six to nine metres higher than today has proven particularly challenging(2). Extensive areas of polar ice sheets were grounded below sea level during both glacial and interglacial periods, with grounding lines and fringing ice shelves extending onto continental shelves(8). This suggests that oceanic forcing by subsurface warming may also have contributed to ice-sheet loss(9-12) analogous to ongoing changes in the Antarctic(13,14) and Greenland(15) ice sheets. Such forcing would have been especially effective during glacial periods, when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) experienced large variations on millennial timescales(16), with a reduction of the AMOC causing subsurface warming throughout much of the Atlantic basin(9,12,17). Here we show that greater subsurface warming induced by the longer period of reduced AMOC during the penultimate deglaciation can explain the more-rapid sea-level rise compared with the last deglaciation. This greater forcing also contributed to excess loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the LIG, causing global mean sea level to rise at least four metres above modern levels. When accounting for the combined influences of penultimate and LIG deglaciation on glacial isostatic adjustment, this excess loss of polar ice during the LIG can explain much of the relative sea level recorded by fossil coral reefs and speleothems at intermediate- and far-field sites.


  
Projected changes in extreme warm and cold temperatures in China from 1.5 to 5 degrees C global warming 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Hu, Ting;  Sun, Ying
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
global warming levels  regional changes  risk ratio  temperature extremes  
Process-oriented assessment of RCA4 regional climate model projections over the Congo Basin under 1.5. C and 2. C global warming levels: influence of regional moisture fluxes 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 1911-1935
作者:  Tamoffo, Alain T.;  Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran;  Dosio, Alessandro;  James, Rachel;  Pokam, Wilfried M.;  Vondou, Derbetini A.;  Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.;  Guenang, Guy Merlin;  Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.;  Nikulin, Grigory;  Longandjo, Georges-Noel;  Lennard, Christopher J.;  Bell, Jean-Pierre;  Takong, Roland R.;  Haensler, Andreas;  Tchotchou, Lucie A. Djiotang;  Nouayou, Robert
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Congo Basin rainfall biases  RCA4  CMIP5  Moisture convergence  Global warming levels  RCPs  
The southern African climate under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (6)
作者:  Maure, G.;  Pinto, I.;  Ndebele-Murisa, M.;  Muthige, M.;  Lennard, C.;  Nikulin, G.;  Dosio, A.;  Meque, A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
climate change  global warming levels  regional climate model projection  Southern Africa  
On the need for regional climate information over Africa under varying levels of global warming 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (6)
作者:  Lennard, C. J.;  Nikulin, G.;  Dosio, A.;  Moufouma-Okia, W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
CORDEX  regional modelling  regional information  global warming levels