The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change

doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9
	The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change
	Gorgulla, Christoph 1,2,3; Boeszoermenyi, Andras 1,3; Wang, Zi-Fu 1; Fischer, Patrick D.1,3,4; Coote, Paul W.1,3; Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.1,3; Malets, Yehor S.5,6; Radchenko, Dmytro S.5,6; Moroz, Yurii S.6,7; Scott, David A.1,3; Fackeldey, Konstantin 8,9; Hoffmann, Moritz 10; Iavniuk, Iryna 5; Wagner, Gerhard 1; Arthanari, Haribabu 1,3
	2020-04-08
发表期刊	NATURE
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
出版年	2020
卷号	580 期号:7804 页码:496-+
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	South Africa; USA; England
英文关键词	As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur. Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.
领域	地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000526470900001
WOS关键词	BIOTIC ATTRITION ; RANGE SHIFTS ; MARINE ; BIODIVERSITY ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; IMPACTS
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
URL	查看原文
引用统计	被引频次：336[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249224
专题	地球科学资源环境科学
作者单位	1.Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Dept Biol Chem & Mol Pharmacol, Boston, MA 02115 USA; 2.Harvard Univ, Dept Phys, Fac Arts & Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 3.Dana Farber Canc Inst, Dept Canc Biol, Boston, MA 02115 USA; 4.Saarland Univ, Dept Pharm Pharmaceut & Med Chem, Saarbrucken, Germany; 5.Enamine, Kiev, Ukraine; 6.Natl Taras Shevchenko Univ Kyiv, Kiev, Ukraine; 7.Chemspace, Kiev, Ukraine; 8.Zuse Inst Berlin, Berlin, Germany; 9.Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Math, Berlin, Germany; 10.Free Univ Berlin, Dept Math & Comp Sci, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gorgulla, Christoph,Boeszoermenyi, Andras,Wang, Zi-Fu,et al. The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change[J]. NATURE,2020,580(7804):496-+.
APA	Gorgulla, Christoph.,Boeszoermenyi, Andras.,Wang, Zi-Fu.,Fischer, Patrick D..,Coote, Paul W..,...&Arthanari, Haribabu.(2020).The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change.NATURE,580(7804),496-+.
MLA	Gorgulla, Christoph,et al."The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change".NATURE 580.7804(2020):496-+.