GSTDTAP
DOI10.1002/joc.6436
Projected changes in extreme warm and cold temperatures in China from 1.5 to 5 degrees C global warming
Hu, Ting1; Sun, Ying1,2
2019-12-18
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2019
文章类型Article;Early Access
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Linking regional extreme temperature changes to global warming levels is important for understanding the impacts of global emission targets on regional climate. Here, we investigate how the temperature extremes in China change with different global warming levels using large ensemble runs from Canadian Earth System Model version 2. With the global mean near-surface temperature increasing from 1.5 to 5 degrees C above the preindustrial level, the absolute intensity of the warmest and coldest temperatures in China will change linearly, while the percentile-based frequency of warm and cold temperatures will change nonlinearly. All the changes in the intensity and the frequency show clear regional differences, with the most obvious changes observed in northeastern China. The probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the intensity indices show clear shifts but with little change in shape, while the PDFs for the frequency indices show changes in both position and shape. Quantified analyses of risk ratio show that the risk changes in the frequency of temperature extremes will be larger than those for the intensity indices. The changes in the nighttime extremes are faster than those in the daytime extremes. The rarer the event is, the larger the change in the risk ratio. At the 2 degrees C warming level, the cold days and nights with return periods of 5, 10, and 50 years in the current climate will become almost disappeared. At the 3 degrees C level and beyond, the once-in-5-year, 10-year and 50-year warm events in the current climate will occur every year.


英文关键词global warming levels regional changes risk ratio temperature extremes
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000503152100001
WOS关键词PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; CLIMATE EXTREMES ; DEGREES-C ; 21ST-CENTURY ; ATTRIBUTION ; INDEXES ; ASIA
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225527
专题环境与发展全球科技态势
作者单位1.China Meteorol Adm, Lab Climate Studies, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Hu, Ting,Sun, Ying. Projected changes in extreme warm and cold temperatures in China from 1.5 to 5 degrees C global warming[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019.
APA Hu, Ting,&Sun, Ying.(2019).Projected changes in extreme warm and cold temperatures in China from 1.5 to 5 degrees C global warming.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA Hu, Ting,et al."Projected changes in extreme warm and cold temperatures in China from 1.5 to 5 degrees C global warming".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019).
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