Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b33 |
Projected effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa | |
Gudoshava, Masilin1,2; Misiani, Herbert O.2; Segele, Zewdu T.2; Jain, Suman3; Ouma, Jully O.2; Otieno, George2; Anyah, Richard4; Indasi, Victor S.5; Endris, Hussen Seid2; Osima, Sarah6; Lennard, Christopher7; Zaroug, Modathir8; Mwangi, Emmah9; Nimusiima, Alex10; Kondowe, Alfred6; Ogwang, Bob5,11; Artan, Guleid2; Atheru, Zachary2 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Zimbabwe; Kenya; Zambia; USA; Niger; Tanzania; South Africa; Uganda |
英文摘要 | This study examines the effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels (GWLs) on intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa. The impacts are analysed based on the outputs of a 25-member regional multi-model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The regional climate models were driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Global Climate Models for historical and future (RCP8.5) periods. We analyse the three major seasons over the region, namely March-May, June-September, and October-December. Results indicate widespread robust changes in the mean intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C GWLs especially for the June-September and October-December seasons. The March-May season is projected to shift for both GWL scenarios with the season starting and ending early. During the June-September season, there is a robust indication of delayed onset, reduction in consecutive wet days and shortening of the length of rainy season over parts of the northern sector under 2 degrees C GWL. During the October-December season, the region is projected to have late-onset, delayed cessation, reduced consecutive wet days and a longer season over most of the equatorial region under the 2 degrees C GWL. These results indicate that it is crucial to limit the GWL to below 1.5 degrees C as the differences between the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C GWLs in some cases exacerbates changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa. |
英文关键词 | CORDEX global warming levels rainfall onset cessation length of rainy season greater horn of Africa consecutive wet and dry days |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000518644300001 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; EQUATORIAL EAST-AFRICA ; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; RAINY-SEASON ; MONSOON ONSET ; VARIABILITY ; CESSATION ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; PREDICTION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279224 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Univ Sci & Technol, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe; 2.IGAD Climate Predict & Applicat Ctr, Nairobi, Kenya; 3.Univ Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia; 4.Univ Connecticut, Storrs, CT USA; 5.ACMAD, Niamey, Niger; 6.Tanzania Meteorol Agcy, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania; 7.Univ Cape Town, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Rondebosch, South Africa; 8.Nile Basin Initiat Secretariat, Entebbe, Uganda; 9.Kenya RedCross, Nairobi, Kenya; 10.Makerere Univ, Kampala, Uganda; 11.Uganda Natl Meteorol Author, Kampala, Uganda |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gudoshava, Masilin,Misiani, Herbert O.,Segele, Zewdu T.,et al. Projected effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3). |
APA | Gudoshava, Masilin.,Misiani, Herbert O..,Segele, Zewdu T..,Jain, Suman.,Ouma, Jully O..,...&Atheru, Zachary.(2020).Projected effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3). |
MLA | Gudoshava, Masilin,et al."Projected effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020). |
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