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The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (7)
作者:  Chen, David Meng-Chuen;  Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon;  Krueger, Tobias;  Mishra, Abhijeet;  Popp, Alexander
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
municipal solid waste  environmental impacts of waste  compositional data  global future projections  circular economy  
Sustainability of agricultural basin development under uncertain future climate and economic conditions: A socio-hydrological analysis 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2020, 174
作者:  Roobavannan, M.;  Kandasamy, J.;  Pande, S.;  Vigneswaran, S.;  Sivapalan, M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
Socio-hydrology  Sustainable development  Values and preferences  Future projections  Safe operating space  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:56/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (3)
作者:  Gutierrez, C.;  Somot, S.;  Nabat, P.;  Mallet, M.;  Corre, L.;  Meijgaard, E. van;  Perpinan, O.;  Gaertner, M. A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
photovoltaic energy  aerosols  regional climate modeling  photovoltaic future projections  
Palaeoclimate evidence of vulnerable permafrost during times of low sea ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 221-+
作者:  Vaks, A.;  Mason, A. J.;  Breitenbach, S. F. M.;  Kononov, A. M.;  Osinzev, A. V.;  Rosensaft, M.;  Borshevsky, A.;  Gutareva, O. S.;  Henderson, G. M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Climate change in the Arctic is occurring rapidly, and projections suggest the complete loss of summer sea ice by the middle of this century(1). The sensitivity of permanently frozen ground (permafrost) in the Northern Hemisphere to warming is less clear, and its long-term trends are harder to monitor than those of sea ice. Here we use palaeoclimate data to show that Siberian permafrost is robust to warming when Arctic sea ice is present, but vulnerable when it is absent. Uranium-lead chronology of carbonate deposits (speleothems) in a Siberian cave located at the southern edge of continuous permafrost reveals periods in which the overlying ground was not permanently frozen. The speleothem record starts 1.5 million years ago (Ma), a time when greater equator-to-pole heat transport led to a warmer Northern Hemisphere(2). The growth of the speleothems indicates that permafrost at the cave site was absent at that time, becoming more frequent from about 1.35 Ma, as the Northern Hemisphere cooled, and permanent after about 0.4 Ma. This history mirrors that of year-round sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, which was largely absent before about 0.4 Ma (ref.(3)), but continuously present since that date. The robustness of permafrost when sea ice is present, as well as the increased permafrost vulnerability when sea ice is absent, can be explained by changes in both heat and moisture transport. Reduced sea ice may contribute to warming of Arctic air(4-6), which can lead to warming far inland(7). Open Arctic waters also increase the source of moisture and increase autumn snowfall over Siberia, insulating the ground from low winter temperatures(8-10). These processes explain the relationship between an ice-free Arctic and permafrost thawing before 0.4 Ma. If these processes continue during modern climate change, future loss of summer Arctic sea ice will accelerate the thawing of Siberian permafrost.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean Etesians and Associated Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019
作者:  Dafka, Stella;  Toreti, Andrea;  Zanis, Prodromos;  Xoplaki, Elena;  Luterbacher, Juerg
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Etesians  extreme winds  Eastern Mediterranean  midlatitude atmospheric circulation  EURO-CORDEX  future projections  
Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019
作者:  Perry, S. J.;  McGregor, S.;  Sen Gupta, A.;  England, M. H.;  Maher, N.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
El Nino-Southern Oscillation  Teleconnections  Future projections  
2018 summer extreme temperatures in South Korea and their intensification under 3 degrees C global warming 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (9)
作者:  Im, Eun-Soon;  Nguyen-Xuan Thanh;  Kim, Young-Hyun;  Ahn, Joong-Bae
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
fine-scale climate projections  dynamical downscaling  2018 Korean heatwaves  regional impacts of global warming  intensified future heat stress  
The response of reference evapotranspiration to climate change in Xinjiang, China: Historical changes, driving forces, and future projections 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Dong, Qing;  Wang, Weiguang;  Shao, Quanxi;  Xing, Wanqiu;  Ding, Yimin;  Fu, Jianyu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
bias correction  contribution assessment  future projections  reference evapotranspiration