Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab8659 |
The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts | |
Chen, David Meng-Chuen1,2; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon2; Krueger, Tobias3; Mishra, Abhijeet1,2; Popp, Alexander2 | |
2020-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Global municipal waste production causes multiple environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, ocean plastic accumulation, and nitrogen pollution. However, estimates of both past and future development of waste and pollution are scarce. We apply compositional Bayesian regression to produce the first estimates of past and future (1965-2100) waste generation disaggregated by composition and treatment, along with resultant environmental impacts, for every country. We find that total wastes grow at declining speed with economic development, and that global waste generation has increased from 635 Mt in 1965 to 1999 Mt in 2015 and reaches 3539 Mt by 2050 (median values, middle-of-the-road scenario). From 2015 to 2050, the global share of organic waste declines from 47% to 39%, while all other waste type shares increase, especially paper. The share of waste treated in dumps declines from 28% to 18%, and more sustainable recycling, composting, and energy recovery treatments increase. Despite these increases, we estimate environmental loads to continue increasing in the future, although yearly plastic waste input into the oceans has reached a peak. Waste production does not appear to follow the environmental Kuznets curve, and current projections do not meet UN SDGs for waste reduction. Our study shows that a continuation of current trends and improvements is insufficient to reduce pressures on natural systems and achieve a circular economy. Relative to 2015, the amount of recycled waste would need to increase from 363 Mt to 740 Mt by 2030 to begin reducing unsustainable waste generation, compared to 519 Mt currently projected. |
英文关键词 | municipal solid waste environmental impacts of waste compositional data global future projections circular economy |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000547009600001 |
WOS关键词 | LANDFILL LEACHATE ; MANAGEMENT ; EMISSIONS ; RATIOS ; GASES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289364 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Humboldt Univ, Albrecht Thaer Inst Agr & Hort Sci, Berlin, Germany; 2.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; 3.Humboldt Univ, IRI THESys, Berlin, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, David Meng-Chuen,Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon,Krueger, Tobias,et al. The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(7). |
APA | Chen, David Meng-Chuen,Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon,Krueger, Tobias,Mishra, Abhijeet,&Popp, Alexander.(2020).The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(7). |
MLA | Chen, David Meng-Chuen,et al."The world's growing municipal solid waste: trends and impacts".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.7(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论