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德加科研人员提出更精确预测地球温度的新方法 快报文章
气候变化快报,2021年第1期
作者:  廖琴
Microsoft Word(19Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:459/0  |  提交时间:2021/01/04
Climate Sensitivity Estimates  Global Temperature Projections  
Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (9)
作者:  Vogel, Martha M.;  Zscheischler, Jakob;  Fischer, Erich M.;  Seneviratne, S., I
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
heatwave  adaptation  temperature extremes  climate projections  CMIP5  
Constraining Global Changes in Temperature and Precipitation From Observable Changes in Surface Radiative Heating 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (9)
作者:  Dhara, Chirag
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
surface energy balance  surface radiative heating  surface temperature response  precipitation change  climate change projections  GCM biases  
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (5)
作者:  Maher, Nicola;  Lehner, Flavio;  Marotzke, Jochem
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
internal variability  SMILEs  large ensembles  short-term projections  mid-term projections  surface temperature  model differences  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:56/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Classification with a disordered dopantatom network in silicon 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 341-+
作者:  Vagnozzi, Ronald J.;  Maillet, Marjorie;  Sargent, Michelle A.;  Khalil, Hadi;  Johansen, Anne Katrine Z.;  Schwanekamp, Jennifer A.;  York, Allen J.;  Huang, Vincent;  Nahrendorf, Matthias;  Sadayappan, Sakthivel;  Molkentin, Jeffery D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Classification is an important task at which both biological and artificial neural networks excel(1,2). In machine learning, nonlinear projection into a high-dimensional feature space can make data linearly separable(3,4), simplifying the classification of complex features. Such nonlinear projections are computationally expensive in conventional computers. A promising approach is to exploit physical materials systems that perform this nonlinear projection intrinsically, because of their high computational density(5), inherent parallelism and energy efficiency(6,7). However, existing approaches either rely on the systems'  time dynamics, which requires sequential data processing and therefore hinders parallel computation(5,6,8), or employ large materials systems that are difficult to scale up(7). Here we use a parallel, nanoscale approach inspired by filters in the brain(1) and artificial neural networks(2) to perform nonlinear classification and feature extraction. We exploit the nonlinearity of hopping conduction(9-11) through an electrically tunable network of boron dopant atoms in silicon, reconfiguring the network through artificial evolution to realize different computational functions. We first solve the canonical two-input binary classification problem, realizing all Boolean logic gates(12) up to room temperature, demonstrating nonlinear classification with the nanomaterial system. We then evolve our dopant network to realize feature filters(2) that can perform four-input binary classification on the Modified National Institute of Standards and Technology handwritten digit database. Implementation of our material-based filters substantially improves the classification accuracy over that of a linear classifier directly applied to the original data(13). Our results establish a paradigm of silicon-based electronics for smallfootprint and energy-efficient computation(14).


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Sensitivity of the atmospheric water cycle to corrections of the sea surface temperature bias over southern Africa in a regional climate model 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 51: 2841-2855
作者:  Weber, Torsten;  Haensler, Andreas;  Jacob, Daniela
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Sea surface temperature bias  Southern Africa  Atmospheric water cycle  Regional climate projections  Okavango River Basin  
Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2018, 150: 391-402
作者:  Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria;  Guo, Yuming;  Sera, Francesco;  Huber, Veronika;  Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich;  Mitchell, Dann;  Tong, Shilu;  Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline de Sousa;  Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario;  Lavigne, Eric;  Matus Correa, Patricia;  Valdes Ortega, Nicolas;  Kan, Haidong;  Osorio, Samuel;  Kysely, Jan;  Ales, Urban;  Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.;  Ryti, Niilo R. I.;  Pascal, Mathilde;  Goodman, Patrick G.;  Zeka, Ariana;  Michelozzi, Paola;  Scortichini, Matteo;  Hashizume, Masahiro;  Honda, Yasushi;  Hurtado-Diaz, Magali;  Cruz, Julio;  Seposo, Xerxes;  Kim, Ho;  Tobias, Aurelio;  Iniguez, Carmen;  Forsberg, Bertil;  Astrom, Daniel Oudin;  Ragettli, Martina S.;  Roosli, Martin;  Guo, Yue Leon;  Wu, Chang-fu;  Zanobetti, Antonella;  Schwartz, Joel;  Bell, Michelle L.;  Tran Ngoc Dang;  Dung Do Van;  Heaviside, Clare;  Vardoulakis, Sotiris;  Hajat, Shakoor;  Haines, Andy;  Armstrong, Ben;  Ebi, Kristie L.;  Gasparrini, Antonio
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Climate change  Mortality  Temperature  Projections  
Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (8)
作者:  Palmer, Matthew D.;  Harris, Glen R.;  Gregory, Jonathan M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
sea level  global surface temperature  Earth'  s energy imbalance  climate projections  global thermal expansion  CMIP5  two layer model