GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3
Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria1; Guo, Yuming2,3; Sera, Francesco1; Huber, Veronika4,5; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich4,6; Mitchell, Dann7; Tong, Shilu8,9,10; Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline de Sousa11; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario11; Lavigne, Eric12,13; Matus Correa, Patricia14; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas14; Kan, Haidong15; Osorio, Samuel16; Kysely, Jan17,18; Ales, Urban; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.17; Ryti, Niilo R. I.19; Pascal, Mathilde19; Goodman, Patrick G.20; Zeka, Ariana21; Michelozzi, Paola22; Scortichini, Matteo23; Hashizume, Masahiro24; Honda, Yasushi25; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali26; Cruz, Julio26; Seposo, Xerxes27,28; Kim, Ho29; Tobias, Aurelio30; Iniguez, Carmen31; Forsberg, Bertil32; Astrom, Daniel Oudin32; Ragettli, Martina S.33,34; Roosli, Martin33,34; Guo, Yue Leon35,36,37; Wu, Chang-fu38; Zanobetti, Antonella39; Schwartz, Joel39; Bell, Michelle L.40; Tran Ngoc Dang41,42; Dung Do Van41; Heaviside, Clare1,43; Vardoulakis, Sotiris1,44; Hajat, Shakoor1; Haines, Andy1; Armstrong, Ben1; Ebi, Kristie L.45; Gasparrini, Antonio1
2018-10-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2018
卷号150页码:391-402
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; Australia; Germany; Spain; Peoples R China; Brazil; Canada; Chile; Czech Republic; Finland; France; Ireland; Italy; Japan; Mexico; South Korea; Sweden; Switzerland; Taiwan; USA; Vietnam; Scotland
英文摘要

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to hold warming well below 2 degrees C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. The 1.5 degrees C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 degrees C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 degrees C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 degrees C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 degrees C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.


英文关键词Climate change Mortality Temperature Projections
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000448034000017
WOS关键词1.5 DEGREES-C
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30137
专题气候变化
作者单位1.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Environm & Soc, Dept Publ Hlth, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England;
2.Monash Univ, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, 99 Commercial Rd, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia;
3.Univ Queensland, Div Epidemiol & Biostat, Sch Populat Hlth, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia;
4.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany;
5.Univ Pablo Olavide, Carretera Utrera, Seville 41013, Spain;
6.Climate Analyt, Ritterstr 3, D-10969 Berlin, Germany;
7.Univ Bristol, Sch Geol Sci, Univ Rd, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England;
8.Anhui Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Inst Environm & Human Hlth, Meishan Rd, Hefei 230032 81, Anhui, Peoples R China;
9.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Med Ctr, 1678 Dongfang Rd, Shanghai 200127, Peoples R China;
10.Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, 2 George St, Brisbane, Qld 4000, Australia;
11.Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Adv Studies, Rua Praca Relogio 109,Bldg K,5th Floor, BR-05508970 Sao Paulo, Brazil;
12.Univ Ottawa, Sch Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON K1G 5Z3, Canada;
13.Hlth Canada, Hlth Environm & Consumer Safety Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada;
14.Univ Los Andes, Dept Publ Hlth, Mons Alvaro Portillo 12, Santiago 455, Chile;
15.Fudan Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, 138 Yi Xue Yuan Rd, Shanghai 200032, Peoples R China;
16.Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Environm Hlth, Av Dr Arnaldo,715 Cerqueira Cesar, BR-03178200 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil;
17.Acad Sci Czech Republ, Inst Atmospher Phys, Prague 140114131, Czech Republic;
18.Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Environm Sci, Kamycka 129, Prague 16521, Czech Republic;
19.Univ Oulu, Ctr Environm & Resp Hlth Res, Aapistie 5B, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland;
20.French Natl Publ Hlth Agcy, St Publ France, 12 Rue Val dOsne, F-94415 St Maurice, France;
21.Dublin Inst Technol, Sch Phys, Kevin St 2, Dublin D08 X622, Ireland;
22.Brunel Univ London, Inst Environm Hlth & Soc, London UB8 3PH, England;
23.Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Via Cristoforo Colombo 112, I-00147 Rome, Italy;
24.Nagasaki Univ, Inst Trop Med, Dept Pediat Infect Dis, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 8528523, Japan;
25.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Hlth & Sport Sci, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058574, Japan;
26.Univ 655 Colonia Santa Maria Ahuacatitlan, Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Cuernavaca 62100, Morelos, Mexico;
27.Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoudai Katsura Campus, Kyoto 6158540, Japan;
28.Grad Sch Global Environm Studies, Dept Global Ecol, Kyoto 6068501, Japan;
29.Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, 1Gwanak Ro, Seoul 08826, South Korea;
30.CSIC, Spanish Council Sci Res, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res IDAEA, Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona 08034, Spain;
31.UV, Dept Stat & Computat Res, Environm Hlth Joint Res Unit, FISABIO,UJI CIBERESP, Valencia, Spain;
32.Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, S-90185 Umea, Sweden;
33.Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Socinstr 57, CH-4051 Basel, Switzerland;
34.Univ Basel, Petersplz 1, CH-4001 Basel, Switzerland;
35.NTU, Environm & Occupat Med, 1 Sect 4,Roosevelt Rd, Taipei, Taiwan;
36.NTU, Inst Occupat Med & Ind Hyg, 1 Sect 4,Roosevelt Rd, Taipei, Taiwan;
37.NTU Hosp, 1 Sect 4,Roosevelt Rd, Taipei, Taiwan;
38.Natl Hlth Res Inst, Natl Inst Environm Hlth Sci, 35 Keyan Rd, Zhunan 35053, Taiwan;
39.Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA;
40.Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA;
41.Univ Med & Pharm, Fac Publ Hlth, 217 Hong Bang,Phurong 11,Quan 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam;
42.Duy Tan Univ, Inst Res & Dev, 254 Nguyen Van Linh, Q Thanh Khe, Da Nang, Vietnam;
43.Publ Hlth England, Ctr Radiat Chem & Environm Hazards, Chem & Environm Effects, Didcot OX11 0RQ, Oxon, England;
44.Inst Occupat Med, Res Ave North, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, Midlothian, Scotland;
45.Univ Washington, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm CHanGE, Seattle, WA 98105 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria,Guo, Yuming,Sera, Francesco,et al. Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,150:391-402.
APA Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria.,Guo, Yuming.,Sera, Francesco.,Huber, Veronika.,Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich.,...&Gasparrini, Antonio.(2018).Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.CLIMATIC CHANGE,150,391-402.
MLA Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria,et al."Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios".CLIMATIC CHANGE 150(2018):391-402.
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