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The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:55/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Structure of the neurotensin receptor 1 in complex with beta-arrestin 1 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 303-+
作者:  Kollmorgen, Sepp;  Hahnloser, Richard H. R.;  Mante, Valerio
收藏  |  浏览/下载:23/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Arrestin proteins bind to active, phosphorylated G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), thereby preventing G-protein coupling, triggering receptor internalization and affecting various downstream signalling pathways(1,2). Although there is a wealth of structural information detailing the interactions between GPCRs and G proteins, less is known about how arrestins engage GPCRs. Here we report a cryo-electron microscopy structure of full-length human neurotensin receptor 1 (NTSR1) in complex with truncated human beta-arrestin 1 (beta arr1(Delta CT)). We find that phosphorylation of NTSR1 is critical for the formation of a stable complex with beta arr1(Delta CT), and identify phosphorylated sites in both the third intracellular loop and the C terminus that may promote this interaction. In addition, we observe a phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphate molecule forming a bridge between the membrane side of NTSR1 transmembrane segments 1 and 4 and the C-lobe of arrestin. Compared with a structure of a rhodopsin-arrestin-1 complex, in our structure arrestin is rotated by approximately 85 degrees relative to the receptor. These findings highlight both conserved aspects and plasticity among arrestin-receptor interactions.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Future haze events in Beijing, China: When climate warms by 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Liu, Cuiping;  Zhang, Feng;  Miao, Lijuan;  Lei, Yadong;  Yang, Quan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
1  5 degrees C  2  0 degrees C  China  CMIP5  global warming  haze  
Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019
作者:  Peng, Dongdong;  Zhou, Tianjun;  Zhang, Lixia;  Zhang, Wenxia;  Chen, Xiaolong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
1  5 and 2 degrees C  Central Asia  Extreme events  
Negative emissions and international climate goals-learning from and about mitigation scenarios 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019
作者:  Hilaire, Jerome;  Minx, Jan C.;  Callaghan, Max W.;  Edmonds, Jae;  Luderer, Gunnar;  Nemet, Gregory F.;  Rogelj, Joeri;  Zamora, Maria del Mar
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Negative emission  Carbon dioxide removal  Systematic evidence synthesis  Integrated assessment model  1  5 degrees C  2 degrees C  
Drylands climate response to transient and stabilized 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C global warming targets 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2375-2389
作者:  Wei, Yun;  Yu, Haipeng;  Huang, Jianping;  Zhou, Tianjun;  Zhang, Meng;  Ren, Yu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Drylands climate change  Transient and stabilized warming world  1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming target  The Paris Agreement  
Robust elevation dependency warming over the Tibetan Plateau under global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2047-2060
作者:  You, Qinglong;  Zhang, Yuqing;  Xie, Xingyang;  Wu, Fangying
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Tibetan Plateau  Elevation dependency warming  1  5 degrees C and 2 degrees C  
Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (4)
作者:  Kumari, Savitri;  Haustein, Karsten;  Javid, Hammad;  Burton, Chad;  Allen, Myles R.;  Paltan, Homero;  Dadson, Simon;  Otto, Friederike E. L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
extreme event attribution  climate modelling  return period  1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of warming  flood  extreme rain  
Global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees C will lead to increase in precipitation intensity in China 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (4) : 2351-2361
作者:  Zhou, Mengzi;  Zhou, Guangsheng;  Lv, Xiaomin;  Zhou, Li;  Ji, Yuhe
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
2 degrees C global warming  5 degrees C global warming  extreme precipitation  spatial distribution