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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-05014-6 |
Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming | |
Peng, Dongdong1,2,3; Zhou, Tianjun2,3,4; Zhang, Lixia2,4; Zhang, Wenxia2; Chen, Xiaolong2 | |
2019-11-05 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Arid Central Asia is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. Information on potential future changes in extreme climate events in Central Asia is limited. In this study, the performances of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climatological extremes in Central Asia are first evaluated, and a bias correction method is employed to constrain future projections. The responses of extreme climate events over Central Asia to future warming and, in particular, the impact of 1.5 and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios are then assessed based on the observationally constrained projections. During the twenty-first century, coldest night (TNn), coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx), warmest day (TXx), 1-day maximum precipitation (RX1 day), 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5 day), and precipitation intensity (SDII) in Central Asia would robustly increase at best estimated rates of 1.93 degrees C, 1.71 degrees C, 1.18 degrees C, 1.25 degrees C, 6.30%, 5.71%, and 4.99% per degree of global warming, respectively, under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Compared with the 2 degrees C warming scenario, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C could reduce the intensification (relative to 1986-2005) of TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx, RX1 day, RX5 day, and SDII by 33%, 24%, 32%, 29%, 39%, 42%, and 53% from the best estimates under RCP8.5, respectively. The avoided intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn and TXx (RX1 day and SDII) would be larger (smaller) under RCP4.5. This suggests that a low warming target is necessary for avoiding the dangerous risk of extremes in this arid region. |
英文关键词 | 1 5 and 2 degrees C Central Asia Extreme events |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494426500001 |
WOS关键词 | GRIDDED PRECIPITATION DATASET ; TEMPERATURE-CHANGES ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION ; SUMMER MONSOON ; CLOUD ENSEMBLE ; DENSE NETWORK ; ARID REGION ; CHINA ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224219 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Inst Trop & Marine Meteorol, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peng, Dongdong,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Lixia,et al. Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019. |
APA | Peng, Dongdong,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Lixia,Zhang, Wenxia,&Chen, Xiaolong.(2019).Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming.CLIMATE DYNAMICS. |
MLA | Peng, Dongdong,et al."Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019). |
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