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Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High 期刊论文
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2020, 11 (1)
作者:  Chen, Xiaolong;  Zhou, Tianjun;  Wu, Peili;  Guo, Zhun;  Wang, Minghuai
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/06/09
Future of the human climate niche 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (21) : 11350-11355
作者:  Xu, Chi;  Kohler, Timothy A.;  Lenton, Timothy M.;  Svenning, Jens-Christian;  Scheffer, Marten
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
climate  migration  societies  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:56/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change 期刊论文
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2020, 11 (1)
作者:  Maberly, Stephen C.;  39;Donnell, Ruth A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways 期刊论文
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2020, 11 (1)
作者:  Chen, Guangzhao;  39;an
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
Intensification of dairy production can increase the GHG mitigation potential of the land use sector in East Africa 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Brandt, Patric;  Yesuf, Gabriel;  Herold, Martin;  Rufino, Mariana C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
forest disturbance  greenhouse gas emissions  livestock grazing  LivSim  smallholder farming  sustainable intensification  
Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper-Schinus terebinthifolius) 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Osland, Michael J.;  Feher, Laura C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Brazilian pepper  climate change  freezing  invasive plant  range expansion  Schinus terebinthifolius  temperature threshold  tropicalization  
Global modeling of nature's contributions to people 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2019, 366 (6462) : 255-+
作者:  Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca;  Sharp, Richard P.;  Weill, Charlotte;  Bennett, Elena M.;  Pascual, Unai;  Arkema, Katie K.;  Brauman, Kate A.;  Bryant, Benjamin P.;  Guerry, Anne D.;  Haddad, Nick M.;  Hamann, Maike;  Hamel, Perrine;  Johnson, Justin A.;  Mandle, Lisa;  Pereira, Henrique M.;  Polasky, Stephen;  Ruckelshaus, Mary;  Rebecca Shaw, M.;  Silver, Jessica M.;  Vogl, Adrian L.;  Daily, Gretchen C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Effects of 21st-century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (10) : 3334-3353
作者:  Sleeter, Benjamin M.;  Marvin, David C.;  Cameron, D. Richard;  Selmants, Paul C.;  Westerline, A. LeRoy;  Kreitler, Jason;  Daniel, Colin J.;  Liu, Jinxun;  Wilson, Tamara S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
California  carbon balance  climate change  disturbance  land use  scenarios  
Negative feedback processes following drainage slow down permafrost degradation 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (10) : 3254-3266
作者:  Goeckede, Mathias;  Kwon, Min Jung;  Kittler, Fanny;  Heimann, Martin;  Zimov, Nikita;  Zimov, Sergey
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Arctic climate change  drainage disturbance  energy redistribution  long-term effects  permafrost carbon