Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14677 |
Effects of 21st-century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California | |
Sleeter, Benjamin M.1; Marvin, David C.2; Cameron, D. Richard2; Selmants, Paul C.3; Westerline, A. LeRoy4; Kreitler, Jason5; Daniel, Colin J.6; Liu, Jinxun3; Wilson, Tamara S.3 | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 25期号:10页码:3334-3353 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Canada |
英文摘要 | Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001-2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by -188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of -89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of -9.4% (-432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from -916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land-use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land-use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem-based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated. |
英文关键词 | California carbon balance climate change disturbance land use scenarios |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000486150200012 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; CYCLE MODELS ; DROUGHT ; CO2 ; FOREST ; TEMPERATURE ; GPP ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; SATELLITE ; DYNAMICS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187377 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.US Geol Survey, Seattle, WA 98104 USA; 2.Nature Conservancy, San Francisco, CA USA; 3.US Geol Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Pk, CA 94025 USA; 4.Univ Calif Merced, Merced, CA USA; 5.US Geol Survey, Boise, ID USA; 6.Apex Resource Management Solut Ltd, Ottawa, ON, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sleeter, Benjamin M.,Marvin, David C.,Cameron, D. Richard,et al. Effects of 21st-century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019,25(10):3334-3353. |
APA | Sleeter, Benjamin M..,Marvin, David C..,Cameron, D. Richard.,Selmants, Paul C..,Westerline, A. LeRoy.,...&Wilson, Tamara S..(2019).Effects of 21st-century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,25(10),3334-3353. |
MLA | Sleeter, Benjamin M.,et al."Effects of 21st-century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 25.10(2019):3334-3353. |
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