GSTDTAP

浏览/检索结果: 共11条,第1-10条 帮助

限定条件                    
已选(0)清除 条数/页:   排序方式:
Deciphering the extreme rainfall scenario over Indian landmass using satellite observations, reanalysis and model forecast: Case studies 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2020, 240
作者:  Saha, Upal;  Singh, Tarkeshwar;  Sharma, Priti;  Das Gupta, M.;  Prasad, V. S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
Extreme rainfall  Monsoon  Instability  Global forecast system  Unified Model  
Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 2020, 20 (4) : 2201-2219
作者:  Wellmann, Constanze;  Barrett, Andrew, I;  Johnson, Jill S.;  Kunz, Michael;  Vogel, Bernhard;  Carslaw, Ken S.;  Hoose, Corinna
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Complexity-based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (1) : 177-183
作者:  Meng, Jun;  Fan, Jingfang;  Ludescher, Josef;  Agarwal, Ankit;  Chen, Xiaosong;  Bunde, Armin;  Kurths, Juergen;  Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
ENSO  system complexity  entropy  spring barrier  forecasting  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Lightning data assimilation with comprehensively nudging water contents at cloud-resolving scale using WRF model 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 221: 72-87
作者:  Chen, Zhixiong;  Qie, Xiushu;  Liu, Dongxia;  Xiong, Yajun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Squall line  Lightning data assimilation  Quantitative precipitation forecasts  Surface cold pool  WRF  
What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather? 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (4) : 1077-1091
作者:  Zhang, Fuqing;  Sun, Y. Qiang;  Magnusson, Linus;  Buizza, Roberto;  Lin, Shian-Jiann;  Chen, Jan-Huey;  Emanuel, Kerry
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Numerical weather prediction  forecasting  Operational forecasting  
Northward Propagation, Initiation, and Termination of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations in a Zonally Symmetric Model 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (2) : 639-668
作者:  Yang, Qiu;  Khouider, Boualem;  Majda, Andrew J.;  De La Chevrotiere, Michele
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Atmospheric circulation  Convective-scale processes  Dynamics  Hadley circulation  Madden-Julian oscillation  Planetary waves  
On the Time Evolution of Limited-Area Ensemble Variance: Case Studies with the Convection-Permitting Ensemble COSMO-E 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (1) : 11-26
作者:  Klasa, Christina;  Arpagaus, Marco;  Walser, Andre;  Wernli, Heini
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Ensembles  Mesoscale forecasting  Short-range prediction  Nonhydrostatic models  Numerical weather prediction  forecasting  Regional models  
Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (45) : 11460-11464
作者:  Scoccimarro, Enrico;  Bellucci, Alessio;  Storto, Andrea;  Gualdi, Silvio;  Masina, Simona;  Navarra, Antonio
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
hurricanes  Atlantic Ocean  seasonal predictions  subsurface ocean  tropical cyclones  
Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (1) : 59-63
作者:  Osso, Albert;  Sutton, Rowan;  Shaffrey, Len;  Dong, Buwen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
climate variability  seasonal forecast  sea-air interactions  predictability