Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-18-0013.1 |
On the Time Evolution of Limited-Area Ensemble Variance: Case Studies with the Convection-Permitting Ensemble COSMO-E | |
Klasa, Christina1; Arpagaus, Marco2; Walser, Andre2; Wernli, Heini1 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES |
ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 76期号:1页码:11-26 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Dynamical processes determining the time evolution of difference kinetic energy (DKE) in a limited-area domain are investigated with the convection-permitting ensemble model COSMO-E for a forecasting period of 4 days. DKE is quantified by means of ensemble variance of the irrotational and nondivergent horizontal wind. For three case studies characterized by contrasting predictability levels of precipitation, it is shown that DKE of the irrotational wind strongly increases during periods of solar-forced moist convective activity and decreases when the latter ceases. The response of DKE of the nondivergent wind is also clearly related to the convective activity, but delayed by a few hours, pointing to interactions between both wind components. Apart from the impact of moist convection, DKE of the nondivergent wind is primarily governed by large-scale advection, imposed at the lateral domain boundaries of the limited-area ensemble. This forcing may also sustain or increase DKE of the irrotational wind when moist convection is absent. Consequently, the large-scale flow and diurnal solar forcing, associated with higher spatiotemporal predictability, determines the overall evolution of the limited-area ensemble variance of the horizontal wind, which increases in the presence of moist convective activity or strong synoptic-scale forcing, and stagnates or decreases otherwise, rendering forecasts of convection-permitting ensembles valuable beyond the very short forecast range. |
英文关键词 | Ensembles Mesoscale forecasting Short-range prediction Nonhydrostatic models Numerical weather prediction forecasting Regional models |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453367600002 |
WOS关键词 | MOIST BAROCLINIC WAVES ; MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY ; ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY ; ERROR GROWTH ; PRECIPITATION EVENTS ; HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; WEATHER ; PREDICTION ; WIND |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29761 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Fed Off Meteorol & Climatol MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Klasa, Christina,Arpagaus, Marco,Walser, Andre,et al. On the Time Evolution of Limited-Area Ensemble Variance: Case Studies with the Convection-Permitting Ensemble COSMO-E[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2019,76(1):11-26. |
APA | Klasa, Christina,Arpagaus, Marco,Walser, Andre,&Wernli, Heini.(2019).On the Time Evolution of Limited-Area Ensemble Variance: Case Studies with the Convection-Permitting Ensemble COSMO-E.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,76(1),11-26. |
MLA | Klasa, Christina,et al."On the Time Evolution of Limited-Area Ensemble Variance: Case Studies with the Convection-Permitting Ensemble COSMO-E".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 76.1(2019):11-26. |
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