Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020 |
Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail | |
Wellmann, Constanze1; Barrett, Andrew, I1; Johnson, Jill S.2; Kunz, Michael1; Vogel, Bernhard1; Carslaw, Ken S.2; Hoose, Corinna1 | |
2020-02-26 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 20期号:4页码:2201-2219 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; England |
英文摘要 | Severe hailstorms have the potential to damage buildings and crops. However, important processes for the prediction of hailstorms are insufficiently represented in operational weather forecast models. Therefore, our goal is to identify model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics, such as the vertical wind shear and strength of ice multiplication, which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convective clouds and precipitation. We conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis simulating deep convective clouds in an idealized setup of a cloud-resolving model. We use statistical emulation and variance-based sensitivity analysis to enable a Monte Carlo sampling of the model outputs across the multi-dimensional parameter space. The results show that the model dynamical and microphysical properties are sensitive to both the environmental and microphysical uncertainties in the model. The microphysical parameters lead to larger uncertainties in the output of integrated hydrometeor mass contents and precipitation variables. In particular, the uncertainty in the fall velocities of graupel and hail account for more than 65 % of the variance of all considered precipitation variables and for 30 %-90 % of the variance of the integrated hydrometeor mass contents. In contrast, variations in the environmental parameters - the range of which is limited to represent model uncertainty - mainly affect the vertical profiles of the diabatic heating rates. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000518134300007 |
WOS关键词 | DROPLET SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS ; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; PART II ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; EXPLICIT FORECASTS ; AEROSOL IMPACTS ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; PARAMETERIZATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/278641 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Karlsruhe, Germany; 2.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wellmann, Constanze,Barrett, Andrew, I,Johnson, Jill S.,et al. Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2020,20(4):2201-2219. |
APA | Wellmann, Constanze.,Barrett, Andrew, I.,Johnson, Jill S..,Kunz, Michael.,Vogel, Bernhard.,...&Hoose, Corinna.(2020).Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(4),2201-2219. |
MLA | Wellmann, Constanze,et al."Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.4(2020):2201-2219. |
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