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Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 502-+
作者:  Bhaskar, M. K.;  Riedinger, R.;  Machielse, B.;  Levonian, D. S.;  Nguyen, C. T.;  Knall, E. N.;  Park, H.;  Englund, D.;  Loncar, M.;  Sukachev, D. D.;  Lukin, M. D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：19/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/03

An infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios-which may have markedly different, but equally plausible, dynamics-can underpin a given time-calibrated phylogeny of extant species, suggesting many previous studies have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence.


Time-calibrated phylogenies of extant species (referred to here as '  extant timetrees'  ) are widely used for estimating diversification dynamics(1). However, there has been considerable debate surrounding the reliability of these inferences(2-5) and, to date, this critical question remains unresolved. Here we clarify the precise information that can be extracted from extant timetrees under the generalized birth-death model, which underlies most existing methods of estimation. We prove that, for any diversification scenario, there exists an infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios that are equally likely to have generated any given extant timetree. These '  congruent'  scenarios cannot possibly be distinguished using extant timetrees alone, even in the presence of infinite data. Importantly, congruent diversification scenarios can exhibit markedly different and yet similarly plausible dynamics, which suggests that many previous studies may have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence. We introduce identifiable and easily interpretable variables that contain all available information about past diversification dynamics, and demonstrate that these can be estimated from extant timetrees. We suggest that measuring and modelling these identifiable variables offers a more robust way to study historical diversification dynamics. Our findings also make it clear that palaeontological data will continue to be crucial for answering some macroevolutionary questions.


  
Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (4) : 1428-1444
作者:  Liu, Bing;  39;Leary, Garry J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
1.5 degrees C warming  climate change  extreme low yields  food security  model ensemble  wheat production  
Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (52) : 13288-13293
作者:  Burke, K. D.;  Williams, J. W.;  Chandler, M. A.;  Haywood, A. M.;  Lunt, D. J.;  Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：12/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
climate change  climate analog  no analog  paleoclimate  planetary boundary  
Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (42) : 10600-10605
作者:  Su, Buda;  Huang, Jinlong;  Fischer, Thomas;  Wang, Yanjun;  Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.;  Zhai, Jianqing;  Sun, Hemin;  Wang, Anqian;  Zeng, Xiaofan;  Wang, Guojie;  Tao, Hui;  Gemmer, Marco;  Li, Xiucang;  Jiang, Tong
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
drought  drought losses  projections  global warming  China  
A spatially explicit representation of conservation agriculture for application in global change studies 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (9) : 4038-4053
作者:  Prestele, Reinhard;  Hirsch, Annette L.;  Davin, Edouard L.;  Seneviratne, Sonia I.;  Verburg, Peter H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：4/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
crop residue management  land management  land-based mitigation  no-till farming  sustainable intensification  zero tillage  
Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (24) : 6243-6248
作者:  Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J.;  Harris, Ian;  Osborn, Timothy J.;  Sao Bernardo, Christine Steiner;  Peres, Carlos A.;  Hunter, Paul R.;  Lake, Iain R.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：9/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
climate change impacts  disease modeling  Latin America  
Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (6) : 2735-2748
作者:  DeWeber, Jefferson T.;  Wagner, Tyler
收藏  |  浏览/下载：3/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
brook trout  climate change  climate metric selection  maximum temperatures  probabilistic accounting  projection uncertainty  range shifts  species distribution  
Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (6) : 2403-2415
作者:  Wang, Bin;  39;Leary, Garry J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
adaptation options  APSIM model  climate change  climate suitability  species distribution model  wheat yield  
Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (1) : E213-E232
作者:  Feng, Xiaohui;  Uriarte, Maria;  Gonzalez, Grizelle;  Reed, Sasha;  Thompson, Jill;  Zimmerman, Jess K.;  Murphy, Lora
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
carbon flux  climate change  ecosystem demography model  GPP  NPP  sensitivity analysis  tropical forest  variance decomposition  
Sea-ice loss boosts visual search: fish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2017, 23 (12)
作者:  Langbehn, Tom J.;  Varpe, Oystein
收藏  |  浏览/下载：10/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
photoperiod  predator-prey interaction  range shift  tipping points  visual ecology