Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1809600115 |
Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates | |
Burke, K. D.1; Williams, J. W.2,3; Chandler, M. A.4,5; Haywood, A. M.6; Lunt, D. J.7; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.8 | |
2018-12-26 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:52页码:13288-13293 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth systemmoves toward climate stateswithout societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129-116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (< 1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity. |
英文关键词 | climate change climate analog no analog paleoclimate planetary boundary |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000454302600070 |
WOS关键词 | EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN ; MODEL ; IMPACT ; SIMULATIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; INSIGHTS |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/205036 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Wisconsin, Nelson Inst Environm Studies, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 2.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 3.Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Climat Res, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 4.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA; 5.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 6.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 7.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England; 8.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Burke, K. D.,Williams, J. W.,Chandler, M. A.,et al. Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(52):13288-13293. |
APA | Burke, K. D.,Williams, J. W.,Chandler, M. A.,Haywood, A. M.,Lunt, D. J.,&Otto-Bliesner, B. L..(2018).Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(52),13288-13293. |
MLA | Burke, K. D.,et al."Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.52(2018):13288-13293. |
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