Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming

doi:10.1073/pnas.1802129115

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1802129115
	Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming
	Su, Buda 1,2,3; Huang, Jinlong 1,4; Fischer, Thomas 3,5; Wang, Yanjun 2; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.6,7; Zhai, Jianqing 2,3; Sun, Hemin 2; Wang, Anqian 1,4; Zeng, Xiaofan 8; Wang, Guojie 2; Tao, Hui 1; Gemmer, Marco 3,5; Li, Xiucang 2,3; Jiang, Tong 2,3
	2018-10-16
发表期刊	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN	0027-8424
出版年	2018
卷号	115 期号:42 页码:10600-10605
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China; Germany; Poland
英文摘要	We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and "intensity-loss rate" function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020-2039 and 2040-2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 degrees C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986-2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006-2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 degrees C warming.
英文关键词	drought drought losses projections global warming China
领域	地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000447491300042
WOS关键词	AREA-DURATION ANALYSIS ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; TRENDS ; INDEX
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
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引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204997
专题	地球科学资源环境科学气候变化
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 5.Eberhard Karls Univ Tubingen, Dept Geosci, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany; 6.Polish Acad Sci, Inst Agr & Forest Environm, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland; 7.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; 8.Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Hydropower & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Su, Buda,Huang, Jinlong,Fischer, Thomas,et al. Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(42):10600-10605.
APA	Su, Buda.,Huang, Jinlong.,Fischer, Thomas.,Wang, Yanjun.,Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W..,...&Jiang, Tong.(2018).Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(42),10600-10605.
MLA	Su, Buda,et al."Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.42(2018):10600-10605.