Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1718945115 |
Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America | |
Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J.1,2; Harris, Ian1; Osborn, Timothy J.1; Sao Bernardo, Christine Steiner3; Peres, Carlos A.1; Hunter, Paul R.4; Lake, Iain R.1 | |
2018-06-12 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:24页码:6243-6248 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Brazil |
英文摘要 | The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 degrees C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 degrees C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8-7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 degrees C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 degrees C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2-1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. |
英文关键词 | climate change impacts disease modeling Latin America |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434933400053 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; AEDES-AEGYPTI ; SCENARIOS ; BURDEN ; TRANSMISSION ; POPULATION ; DISEASES ; VACCINE ; HEALTH |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204934 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; 2.Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England; 3.Univ Estado Mato Grosso, Lab Mastozool, Programa Posgrad Ciencias Ambientais, BR-7820000 Caceres, Mato Grosso, Brazil; 4.Univ East Anglia, Norwich Med Sch, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J.,Harris, Ian,Osborn, Timothy J.,et al. Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(24):6243-6248. |
APA | Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J..,Harris, Ian.,Osborn, Timothy J..,Sao Bernardo, Christine Steiner.,Peres, Carlos A..,...&Lake, Iain R..(2018).Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(24),6243-6248. |
MLA | Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J.,et al."Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.24(2018):6243-6248. |
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