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Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 364-+
作者:  Krebs, John R.;  Hassell, Michael
收藏  |  浏览/下载:49/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands(1,2). They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change(3,4), yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water tower index (WTI), which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each water tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socioeconomic changes. We conclude that the most important (highest WTI) water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountainous areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world'  s most important and vulnerable water towers.


  
Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy 期刊论文
NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2019, 12 (12) : 964-+
作者:  Tokarska, Katarzyna B.;  Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich;  Rogelj, Joeri;  Stolpe, Martin B.;  Matthews, H. Damon;  Pfleiderer, Peter;  Gillett, Nathan P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/16
Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of individual behavioral changes on carbon emissions 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019
作者:  Niamir, Leila;  Kiesewetter, Gregor;  Wagner, Fabian;  Schoepp, Wolfgang;  Filatova, Tatiana;  Voinov, Alexey;  Bressers, Hans
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Behavioral change  Agent-based modeling  Carbon emissions  Macroeconomic impacts  Climate change mitigation  Energy economics  Residential energy  
The global decline of freshwater megafauna 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) : 3883-3892
作者:  He, Fengzhi;  Zarfl, Christiane;  Bremerich, Vanessa;  David, Jonathan N. W.;  Hogan, Zeb;  Kalinkat, Gregor;  Tockner, Klement;  Jaehnig, Sonja C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
biodiversity  conservation  distribution  extinction  population  range contraction  size  vertebrate  
An Improved Estimate of the Coupled Arctic Energy Budget 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (22) : 7915-7934
作者:  Mayer, Michael;  Tietsche, Steffen;  Haimberger, Leopold;  Tsubouchi, Takamasa;  Mayer, Johannes;  Zuo, Hao
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atmosphere  Ocean  Arctic  Energy transport  Climatology  Energy budget  balance  
Understanding ecosystems of the future will require more than realistic climate change experiments - A response to Korell et al. 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  De Boeck, Hans J.;  Bloor, Juliette M. G.;  Aerts, Rien;  Bahn, Michael;  Beier, Claus;  Emmett, Bridget A.;  Estiarte, Marc;  Gruenzweig, Jose M.;  Halbritter, Aud H.;  Holub, Petr;  Jentsch, Anke;  Klem, Karel;  Kreyling, Juergen;  Kroel-Dulay, Gyoergy;  Larsen, Klaus Steenberg;  Milcu, Alexandru;  Roy, Jacques;  Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.;  Smith, Melinda D.;  Sternberg, Marcelo;  Vandvik, Vigdis;  Wohlgemuth, Thomas;  Nijs, Ivan;  Knapp, Alan K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Broadly protective human antibodies that target the active site of influenza virus neuraminidase 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2019, 366 (6464) : 499-+
作者:  Stadlbauer, Daniel;  Zhu, Xueyong;  McMahon, Meagan;  Turner, Jackson S.;  Wohlbold, Teddy J.;  Schmitz, Aaron J.;  Strohmeier, Shirin;  Yu, Wenli;  Nachbagauer, Raffael;  Mudd, Philip A.;  Wilson, Ian A.;  Ellebedy, Ali H.;  Krammer, Florian
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Negative emissions and international climate goals-learning from and about mitigation scenarios 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019
作者:  Hilaire, Jerome;  Minx, Jan C.;  Callaghan, Max W.;  Edmonds, Jae;  Luderer, Gunnar;  Nemet, Gregory F.;  Rogelj, Joeri;  Zamora, Maria del Mar
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Negative emission  Carbon dioxide removal  Systematic evidence synthesis  Integrated assessment model  1  5 degrees C  2 degrees C  
The physicist and the dawn of the double helix 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2019, 366 (6461) : 43-43
作者:  Sigmund, Karl
收藏  |  浏览/下载:0/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27