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DOI | 10.1038/s41561-019-0493-5 |
Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy | |
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.1,2; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich3,4,5; Rogelj, Joeri1,6,7; Stolpe, Martin B.1; Matthews, H. Damon8; Pfleiderer, Peter3,4,5; Gillett, Nathan P.9 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE GEOSCIENCE |
ISSN | 1752-0894 |
EISSN | 1752-0908 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 12期号:12页码:964-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; Scotland; Germany; England; Austria; Canada |
英文摘要 | Recent estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals are larger than previously thought. One potential reason for these larger estimates may be the different temperature metrics used to estimate the observed global mean warming for the historical period, as they affect the size of the remaining carbon budget. Here we explain the reasons behind these remaining carbon budget increases, and discuss how methodological choices of the global mean temperature metric and the reference period influence estimates of the remaining carbon budget. We argue that the choice of the temperature metric should depend on the domain of application. For scientific estimates of total or remaining carbon budgets, globally averaged surface air temperature estimates should be used consistently for the past and the future. However, when used to inform the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal, a temperature metric consistent with the science that was underlying and directly informed the Paris Agreement should be applied. The resulting remaining carbon budgets should be calculated using the appropriate metric or adjusted to reflect these differences among temperature metrics. Transparency and understanding of the implications of such choices are crucial to providing useful information that can bridge the science-policy gap. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000499653700003 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; DEGREES-C ; HIATUS ; VARIABILITY ; CONSISTENT ; PATHWAYS ; PACIFIC ; TARGETS ; AEROSOL ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/223782 |
专题 | 地球科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 3.Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany; 4.Humboldt Univ, Integrat Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Syst, Berlin, Germany; 5.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany; 6.Imperial Coll London, Grantham Inst, London, England; 7.IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; 8.Concordia Univ, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 9.Univ Victoria, Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich,Rogelj, Joeri,et al. Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2019,12(12):964-+. |
APA | Tokarska, Katarzyna B..,Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich.,Rogelj, Joeri.,Stolpe, Martin B..,Matthews, H. Damon.,...&Gillett, Nathan P..(2019).Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,12(12),964-+. |
MLA | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,et al."Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 12.12(2019):964-+. |
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