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Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Annual Seminar probes progress in predictions up to seasons ahead 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/09/19
ECMWF celebrates 40 years of operational medium-range forecasting 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/09/19
Lightning data assimilation with comprehensively nudging water contents at cloud-resolving scale using WRF model 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 221: 72-87
作者:  Chen, Zhixiong;  Qie, Xiushu;  Liu, Dongxia;  Xiong, Yajun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Squall line  Lightning data assimilation  Quantitative precipitation forecasts  Surface cold pool  WRF  
Where are the present computational limits of global high-resolution modelling? 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:2/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/16
What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather? 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (4) : 1077-1091
作者:  Zhang, Fuqing;  Sun, Y. Qiang;  Magnusson, Linus;  Buizza, Roberto;  Lin, Shian-Jiann;  Chen, Jan-Huey;  Emanuel, Kerry
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Numerical weather prediction  forecasting  Operational forecasting  
Scientists propose a new benchmark skill for decadal prediction of terrestrial water storage 新闻
来源平台:Science X network. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/16
Northward Propagation, Initiation, and Termination of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations in a Zonally Symmetric Model 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (2) : 639-668
作者:  Yang, Qiu;  Khouider, Boualem;  Majda, Andrew J.;  De La Chevrotiere, Michele
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Atmospheric circulation  Convective-scale processes  Dynamics  Hadley circulation  Madden-Julian oscillation  Planetary waves  
A new book on the challenges of extended-range prediction 新闻
来源平台:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 发布日期:2019
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/16
On the Time Evolution of Limited-Area Ensemble Variance: Case Studies with the Convection-Permitting Ensemble COSMO-E 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 76 (1) : 11-26
作者:  Klasa, Christina;  Arpagaus, Marco;  Walser, Andre;  Wernli, Heini
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Ensembles  Mesoscale forecasting  Short-range prediction  Nonhydrostatic models  Numerical weather prediction  forecasting  Regional models