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Exploring sources of uncertainty in premature mortality estimates from fine particulate matter: the case of China 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Giani, Paolo;  Anav, Alessandro;  De Marco, Alessandra;  Feng, Zhaozhong;  Crippa, Paola
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
WRF-Chem  health impact assessment  particulate matter exposure  China'  s air quality  uncertainty quantification  Monte Carlo  
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 294-+
作者:  Ibrahim, Nizar;  Maganuco, Simone;  Dal Sasso, Cristiano;  Fabbri, Matteo;  Auditore, Marco;  Bindellini, Gabriele;  Martill, David M.;  Zouhri, Samir;  Mattarelli, Diego A.;  Unwin, David M.;  Wiemann, Jasmina;  Bonadonna, Davide;  Amane, Ayoub;  Jakubczak, Juliana;  Joger, Ulrich;  Lauder, George V.;  Pierce, Stephanie E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover(1-3). These changes in snow cover affect Earth'  s climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere(4-6). In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking(7-9). Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 +/- 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40 degrees N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia  both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth'  s energy, water and carbon budgets.


Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.


  
Probabilistic Forecast of Single-Phase Flow in Porous Media With Uncertain Properties 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2019
作者:  Yang, Hyung Jun;  Boso, Francesca;  Tchelepi, Hamdi A.;  Tartakovsky, Daniel M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
uncertainty quantification  groundwater flow  random conductivity  method of distributions  risk assessment  rare events  
Optimizing dynamics of integrated food-energy-water systems under the risk of climate change 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (7)
作者:  Memarzadeh, Milad;  Moura, Scott;  Horvath, Arpad
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
food-energy-water systems  climate change  uncertainty quantification  decision optimization  
Deep Convolutional Encoder-Decoder Networks for Uncertainty Quantification of Dynamic Multiphase Flow in Heterogeneous Media 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2019, 55 (1) : 703-728
作者:  Mo, Shaoxing;  Zhu, Yinhao;  Zabaras, Nicholas;  Shi, Xiaoqing;  Wu, Jichun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
multiphase flow  geological carbon storage  uncertainty quantification  deep neural networks  high dimensionality  response discontinuity  
Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2018, 123 (23) : 13046-13073
作者:  Qian, Yun;  Wan, Hui;  Yang, Ben;  Golaz, Jean-Christophe;  Harrop, Bryce;  Hou, Zhangshuan;  Larson, Vincent E.;  Leung, L. Ruby;  Lin, Guangxing;  Lin, Wuyin;  Ma, Po-Lun;  Ma, Hsi-Yen;  Rasch, Phil;  Singh, Balwinder;  Wang, Hailong;  Xie, Shaocheng;  Zhang, Kai
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
parametric sensitivity  uncertainty quantification  E3SM  PPE  short simulations  sensitivity analysis  
Uncertainty Analysis of Simulations of the Turn-of-the-Century Drought in the Western United States 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2018, 123 (23) : 13219-13237
作者:  Anderson, Gemma J.;  Lucas, Donald D.;  Bonfils, Celine
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
drought  uncertainty quantification  western United States  CAM4  
Assessing the reliability and uncertainties of projected changes in precipitation and temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models over the Lake Chad basin 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38 (14) : 5136-5152
作者:  Nkiaka, Elias;  Nawaz, Rizwan;  Lovett, Jon C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
climate change  climate projections  CMIP5  Lake Chad basin  reliability ensemble averaging  simple model averaging  uncertainty quantification  
Method of Distributions for Water Hammer Equations With Uncertain Parameters 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2018, 54 (11) : 9398-9411
作者:  Alawadhi, Abdulrahman;  Boso, Francesca;  Tartakovsky, Daniel M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
water hammer  uncertainty quantification  PDF equation  leak detection  
The Importance of Spatiotemporal Variability in Irrigation Inputs for Hydrological Modeling of Irrigated Catchments 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2018, 54 (9) : 6792-6821
作者:  McInerney, David;  Thyer, Mark;  Kavetski, Dmitri;  Githui, Faith;  Thayalakumaran, Thabo;  Liu, Min;  Kuczera, George
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
irrigation schedule model  distributed hydrological model  spatiotemporal variability  streamflow simulation  uncertainty quantification  SWAT