Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR026090 |
Probabilistic Forecast of Single-Phase Flow in Porous Media With Uncertain Properties | |
Yang, Hyung Jun; Boso, Francesca; Tchelepi, Hamdi A.; Tartakovsky, Daniel M. | |
2019-11-06 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Uncertainty about geologic makeup and properties of the subsurface renders inadequate a unique quantitative prediction of flow and transport. Instead, multiple alternative scenarios have to be explored within the probabilistic framework, typically by means of Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). These can be computationally expensive, and often prohibitively so, especially when the goal is to compute the tails of a distribution, that is, probabilities of rare events, which are necessary for risk assessment and decision making under uncertainty. We deploy the method of distributions to derive a deterministic equation for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of hydraulic head in an aquifer with uncertain (random) hydraulic conductivity. The CDF equation relies on a self-consistent closure approximation, which ensures that the resulting CDF of hydraulic head has the same mean and variance as those computed with statistical moment equations. We conduct a series of numerical experiments dealing with steady-state two-dimensional flow driven by either a natural hydraulic head gradient or a pumping well. These experiments reveal that the CDF method remains accurate and robust for highly heterogeneous formations with the variance of log conductivity as large as five. For the same accuracy, it is also up to four orders of magnitude faster than MCS in computing hydraulic head with a required degree of confidence (probability). |
英文关键词 | uncertainty quantification groundwater flow random conductivity method of distributions risk assessment rare events |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494648300001 |
WOS关键词 | STOCHASTIC-ANALYSIS ; EQUATIONS ; QUANTIFICATION ; TRANSPORT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188266 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Stanford Univ, Dept Energy Resources Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Hyung Jun,Boso, Francesca,Tchelepi, Hamdi A.,et al. Probabilistic Forecast of Single-Phase Flow in Porous Media With Uncertain Properties[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019. |
APA | Yang, Hyung Jun,Boso, Francesca,Tchelepi, Hamdi A.,&Tartakovsky, Daniel M..(2019).Probabilistic Forecast of Single-Phase Flow in Porous Media With Uncertain Properties.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH. |
MLA | Yang, Hyung Jun,et al."Probabilistic Forecast of Single-Phase Flow in Porous Media With Uncertain Properties".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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