Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD028927 |
Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations | |
Qian, Yun1; Wan, Hui1; Yang, Ben1,2; Golaz, Jean-Christophe3; Harrop, Bryce1; Hou, Zhangshuan1; Larson, Vincent E.4; Leung, L. Ruby1; Lin, Guangxing1; Lin, Wuyin5; Ma, Po-Lun1; Ma, Hsi-Yen3; Rasch, Phil1; Singh, Balwinder1; Wang, Hailong1; Xie, Shaocheng3; Zhang, Kai1 | |
2018-12-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123期号:23页码:13046-13073 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The atmospheric component of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 has included many new features in the physics parameterizations compared to its predecessors. Potential complex nonlinear interactions among the new features create a significant challenge for understanding the model behaviors and parameter tuning. Using the one-at-a-time method, the benefit of tuning one parameter may offset the benefit of tuning another parameter, or improvement in one target variable may lead to degradation in another target variable. To better understand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 model behaviors and physics, we conducted a large number of short simulations (three days) in which 18 parameters carefully selected from parameterizations of deep convection, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics and microphysics were perturbed simultaneously using the Latin hypercube sampling method. From the perturbed parameter ensemble simulations and use of different skill score functions, we identified the most sensitive parameters, quantified how the model responds to changes of the parameters for both global mean and spatial distribution, and estimated the maximum likelihood of model parameter space for a number of important fidelity metrics. Comparison of the parametric sensitivity using simulations of two different lengths suggests that perturbed parameter ensemble using short simulations has some bearing on understanding parametric sensitivity of longer simulations. Results from this analysis provide a more comprehensive picture of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 behavior. The difficulty in reducing biases in multiple variables simultaneously highlights the need of characterizing model structural uncertainty (so-called embedded errors) to inform future development efforts. |
英文关键词 | parametric sensitivity uncertainty quantification E3SM PPE short simulations sensitivity analysis |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000455285500002 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION ; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; PART II ; CLOUD ; OPTIMIZATION ; CALIBRATION ; CLOSURE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34075 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA; 2.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA USA; 4.Univ Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA; 5.Brookhaven Natl Lab, Upton, NY 11973 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Qian, Yun,Wan, Hui,Yang, Ben,et al. Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2018,123(23):13046-13073. |
APA | Qian, Yun.,Wan, Hui.,Yang, Ben.,Golaz, Jean-Christophe.,Harrop, Bryce.,...&Zhang, Kai.(2018).Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,123(23),13046-13073. |
MLA | Qian, Yun,et al."Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 123.23(2018):13046-13073. |
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