GSTDTAP

浏览/检索结果: 共25条,第1-10条 帮助

已选(0)清除 条数/页:   排序方式:
近40年北极升温速度与末次冰期气候突变相当 快报文章
气候变化快报,2020年第16期
作者:  刘燕飞
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:375/2  |  提交时间:2020/08/19
Arctic warming  abrupt climate change  last glacial period  Dansgaard-Oeschger events  
气候变化可能导致全球生物多样性突然丧失 快报文章
气候变化快报,2020年第9期
作者:  裴惠娟
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:339/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/30
Climate Change  Biodiversity  Abrupt Ecological Disruption  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
作者:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
收藏  |  浏览/下载:56/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.


Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.


  
Ice front blocking of ocean heat transport to an Antarctic ice shelf 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7796) : 568-+
作者:  Alexandrov, Ludmil B.;  Kim, Jaegil;  Haradhvala, Nicholas J.;  Huang, Mi Ni;  Ng, Alvin Wei Tian;  Wu, Yang;  Boot, Arnoud;  Covington, Kyle R.;  Gordenin, Dmitry A.;  Bergstrom, Erik N.;  Islam, S. M. Ashiqul;  Lopez-Bigas, Nuria;  Klimczak, Leszek J.;  McPherson, John R.;  Morganella, Sandro;  Sabarinathan, Radhakrishnan;  Wheeler, David A.;  Mustonen, Ville;  Getz, Gad;  Rozen, Steven G.;  Stratton, Michael R.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

The front of the Getz Ice Shelf in West Antarctica creates an abrupt topographic step that deflects ocean currents, suppressing 70% of the heat delivery to the ice sheet.


Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the ocean has increased in recent decades, largely because the thinning of its floating ice shelves has allowed the outflow of grounded ice to accelerate(1,2). Enhanced basal melting of the ice shelves is thought to be the ultimate driver of change(2,3), motivating a recent focus on the processes that control ocean heat transport onto and across the seabed of the Antarctic continental shelf towards the ice(4-6). However, the shoreward heat flux typically far exceeds that required to match observed melt rates(2,7,8), suggesting that other critical controls exist. Here we show that the depth-independent (barotropic) component of the heat flow towards an ice shelf is blocked by the marked step shape of the ice front, and that only the depth-varying (baroclinic) component, which is typically much smaller, can enter the sub-ice cavity. Our results arise from direct observations of the Getz Ice Shelf system and laboratory experiments on a rotating platform. A similar blocking of the barotropic component may occur in other areas with comparable ice-bathymetry configurations, which may explain why changes in the density structure of the water column have been found to be a better indicator of basal melt rate variability than the heat transported onto the continental shelf(9). Representing the step topography of the ice front accurately in models is thus important for simulating ocean heat fluxes and induced melt rates.


  
How Far North Did the African Monsoon Fringe Expand During the African Humid Period? Insights From Southwest Moroccan Speleothems 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 46 (23) : 14093-14102
作者:  Sha, Lijuan;  Brahim, Yassine Ait;  Wassenburg, Jasper A.;  Yin, Jianjun;  Peros, Matthew;  Cruz, Francisco W.;  Cai, Yanjun;  Li, Hanying;  Du, Wenjing;  Zhang, Haiwei;  Edwards, R. Lawrence;  Cheng, Hai
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
African Humid Period  speleothem delta O-18 records  Holocene  abrupt climate change  West African summer monsoon  
The robustness of the skewness as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (15) : 5672-5687
作者:  Xie, Xiao-Qiang;  He, Wen-Ping;  Gu, Bin;  Mei, Ying;  Wang, Jinsong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
abrupt climate change  early warning signal  skewness coefficient  stochastic differential equation  
Prediction of Dansgaard-Oeschger Events From Greenland Dust Records 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 46 (21) : 12427-12434
作者:  Lohmann, Johannes
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Dansgaard-Oeschger events  abrupt climate change  millennial-scale climate variability  ice cores  Greenland  
Anomalous winter moisture transport associated with the recent surface warming over the Barents-Kara seas region since the mid-2000s 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Wang, Sai;  Chen, Wen;  Chen, Shangfeng;  Nath, Debashis;  Wang, Lin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
abrupt change  moisture flux  monthly mean flow  synoptic-scale eddy activity  the Barents-Kara seas warming in winter  
Changes of the relationship between spring sand dust frequency and large-scale atmospheric circulation 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 226: 102-109
作者:  Yang, Mingzhu;  Zhu, Xiaying;  Pan, Hongxing;  Ai, Wanxiu;  Song, Wenling;  Pan, Yuepeng
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Sand/dust frequency  Abrupt change  Inter-decadal variation  Atmospheric circulation  
Spatiotemporal soil moisture variations associated with hydro-meteorological factors over the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in Southeast Tibetan Plateau 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Li, Xueying;  Liu, Liu;  Li, Hao;  Wang, Shuping;  Heng, Jingxia
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
abrupt change  climate change  land surface models  soil moisture  Tibetan Plateau