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百年一遇的洪水在本世纪末将成为常态 快报文章
资源环境快报,2020年第24期
作者:  牛艺博
Microsoft Word(19Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:490/0  |  提交时间:2020/12/31
Flood  Forecast  Climate change  Tropical cyclone  Sea level rise  
Laboratory and Numerical Investigation of Saltwater Intrusion Processes in a Circular Island Aquifer 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (2)
作者:  Memari, Sama S.;  Bedekar, Vivek S.;  Clement, T. Prabhakar
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
saltwater intrusion  sea level rise  circular island aquifer  transient freshwater lens  laboratory-scale investigation  climate change  
Global-scale human impact on delta morphology has led to net land area gain 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7791) : 514-+
作者:  Nienhuis, J. H.;  Ashton, A. D.;  Edmonds, D. A.;  Hoitink, A. J. F.;  Kettner, A. J.;  Rowland, J. C.;  Tornqvist, T. E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:42/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. Even in the absence of sea-level rise, deltas are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards as declining sediment supply and climate change alter their sediment budget, affecting delta morphology and possibly leading to erosion(1-3). However, the relationship between deltaic sediment budgets, oceanographic forces of waves and tides, and delta morphology has remained poorly quantified. Here we show how the morphology of about 11,000 coastal deltas worldwide, ranging from small bayhead deltas to mega-deltas, has been affected by river damming and deforestation. We introduce a model that shows that present-day delta morphology varies across a continuum between wave (about 80 per cent), tide (around 10 per cent) and river (about 10 per cent) dominance, but that most large deltas are tide- and river-dominated. Over the past 30 years, despite sea-level rise, deltas globally have experienced a net land gain of 54 +/- 12 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations), with the largest 1 per cent of deltas being responsible for 30 per cent of all net land area gains. Humans are a considerable driver of these net land gains-25 per cent of delta growth can be attributed to deforestation-induced increases in fluvial sediment supply. Yet for nearly 1,000 deltas, river damming(4) has resulted in a severe (more than 50 per cent) reduction in anthropogenic sediment flux, forcing a collective loss of 12 +/- 3.5 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations) of deltaic land. Not all deltas lose land in response to river damming: deltas transitioning towards tide dominance are currently gaining land, probably through channel infilling. With expected accelerated sea-level rise(5), however, recent land gains are unlikely to be sustained throughout the twenty-first century. Understanding the redistribution of sediments by waves and tides will be critical for successfully predicting human-driven change to deltas, both locally and globally.


A global study of river deltas shows a net increase in delta area by about 54 km(2) yr(-1) over the past 30 years, in part due to deforestation-induced sediment delivery increase.


  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:31/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Impacts of the mid-latitude westerlies anomaly on the decadal sea level variability east of China 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 5985-5998
作者:  Yu, Kai;  Liu, Hailong;  Chen, Yingying;  Dong, Changming;  Dong, Jihai;  Yan, Yunwei;  Wang, Dongxiao
收藏  |  浏览/下载:29/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Sea level change  Decadal variability  Mid-latitude westerlies  East China Sea  North Pacific Gyre Oscillation  
Extreme spatial heterogeneity in carbonate accretion potential on a Caribbean fringing reef linked to local human disturbance gradients 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  de Bakker, Didier M.;  van Duyl, Fleur C.;  Perry, Chris T.;  Meesters, Erik H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Acropora cervicornis  bioerosion  Bonaire  calcification  carbonate budget  Caribbean  climate change  sea-level rise  
Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (7)
作者:  Tokarska, Katarzyna B.;  Hegerl, Gabriele C.;  Schurer, Andrew P.;  Ribes, Aurelien;  Fasullo, John T.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:23/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
ocean warming  thermosteric sea level  detection and attribution  climate change  Earth system modelling  
An update on the thermosteric sea level rise commitment to global warming 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (5)
作者:  Hieronymus, Magnus
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
sea level rise  climate change  thermosteric  
Co-development of a climate change decision support framework through engagement with stakeholders 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019, 153 (4) : 587-605
作者:  Leitch, Anne M.;  Palutikof, J. P.;  Rissik, D.;  Boulter, S. L.;  Tonmoy, Fahim N.;  Webb, S.;  Vidaurre, A. C. Perez;  Campbell, M. C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:20/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Climate change adaptation  Coastal management  Australia  Coproduction of knowledge  Sea-level rise  Coastal hazards  
Managed retreat as a strategy for climate change adaptation in small communities: public health implications 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019, 153: 1-14
作者:  Dannenberg, Andrew L.;  Frumkin, Howard;  Hess, Jeremy J.;  Ebi, Kristie L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:29/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Managed retreat  Public health  Sea level rise  Climate change adaptation  Indigenous peoples