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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab23c1 |
Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise | |
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.1; Hegerl, Gabriele C.1; Schurer, Andrew P.1; Ribes, Aurelien2; Fasullo, John T.3 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; France; USA |
英文摘要 | More than 90% of the Earth's energy imbalance is stored by the ocean. While previous studies have shown that changes in the ocean warming are detectable and distinct from internal variability of the climate system, an estimate of separate contributions by natural and individual anthropogenic forcings (such as greenhouse gases and aerosols) remains outstanding. Here we investigate anthropogenic and greenhouse-gas contributions to past ocean warming, and estimate their contributions to future sea level rise by the year 2100. By applying detection and attribution framework (regularized optimal fingerprinting), we show that ocean warming in the historical period is detectable and attributable to contributions from the aggregate anthropogenic forcing as well as greenhouse gas forcing alone. We also discuss the role of natural forcing on the ocean volume-averaged temperature and examine the impact of volcanic activity from the three main volcanoes occurring in the historical period 1955-2012. Our results suggest that estimated anthropogenic and greenhouse-gas contributions to ocean warming are consistent with observations, and observationally-constrained future thermosteric sea level rise projections support the central and lower part of the multi-model mean projection range distribution. |
英文关键词 | ocean warming thermosteric sea level detection and attribution climate change Earth system modelling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475442000004 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; GREENHOUSE-GAS ; PART I ; ATTRIBUTION ; DRIVEN ; HEAT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184546 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.CNRS, GAME, Meteo France, Bordeaux, France; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.,Schurer, Andrew P.,et al. Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(7). |
APA | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.,Schurer, Andrew P.,Ribes, Aurelien,&Fasullo, John T..(2019).Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(7). |
MLA | Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,et al."Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.7(2019). |
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