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No Cookie for Climate Change 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Voigt, A.;  Albern, N.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
clouds  radiation  climate change  circulation  global models  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Classifications of winter atmospheric circulation patterns: validation of CMIP5 GCMs over Europe and the North Atlantic 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 52: 3575-3598
作者:  Stryhal, Jan;  Huth, Radan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Global climate models  Validation  Atmospheric circulation  Circulation classifications  
Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 52: 1063-1075
作者:  Stryhal, Jan;  Huth, Radan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Global climate models  CMIP5  Projections  Atmospheric circulation  Circulation classifications  
Selection of climate models for projection of spatiotemporal changes in temperature of Iraq with uncertainties 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2018, 213: 509-522
作者:  Salman, Saleem A.;  Shahid, Shamsuddin;  Ismail, Tarmizi;  Ahmed, Kamal;  Wang, Xiao-Jun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Temperature  Global circulation models  Systematic uncertainty  Representative concentration pathways  Quantile regression  Iraq  
Northern Hemisphere forests at temperate and boreal latitudes are substantial pollen contributors to atmospheric bioaerosols 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2017, 401
作者:  Williams, Claire G.;  Despres, Viviane
收藏  |  浏览/下载:1/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Pollen dispersal  Pollen allergy  Palynology  Climate change  long-range transport (LRT)  long-distance dispersal (LDD)  Clouds microphysics  Water cycle  Primary atmospheric biological particles (PBAP)  Atmospheric aerosols  Bioprecipitation  Global circulation models (GCM)  
A Bayesian hierarchical model for climate change detection and attribution 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 44 (11)
作者:  Katzfuss, Matthias;  Hammerling, Dorit;  Smith, Richard L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
optimal fingerprinting  Bayesian model averaging  regression  empirical orthogonal functions  global circulation models  uncertainty