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全球导航卫星系统测量应变率的贝叶斯估计:在美国西南部的应用 快报文章
地球科学快报,2021年第15期
作者:  王晓晨
Microsoft Word(16Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:391/0  |  提交时间:2021/08/10
Bayesian Estimation  Strain Rates  
The timing and effect of the earliest human arrivals in North America 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Lorena Becerra-Valdivia;  Thomas Higham
收藏  |  浏览/下载:27/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

The peopling of the Americas marks a major expansion of humans across the planet. However, questions regarding the timing and mechanisms of this dispersal remain, and the previously accepted model (termed '  Clovis-first'  )-suggesting that the first inhabitants of the Americas were linked with the Clovis tradition, a complex marked by distinctive fluted lithic points(1)-has been effectively refuted. Here we analyse chronometric data from 42 North American and Beringian archaeological sites using a Bayesian age modelling approach, and use the resulting chronological framework to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns of human dispersal. We then integrate these patterns with the available genetic and climatic evidence. The data obtained show that humans were probably present before, during and immediately after the Last Glacial Maximum (about 26.5-19 thousand years ago)(2,3)but that more widespread occupation began during a period of abrupt warming, Greenland Interstadial 1 (about 14.7-12.9 thousand years beforead 2000)(4). We also identify the near-synchronous commencement of Beringian, Clovis and Western Stemmed cultural traditions, and an overlap of each with the last dates for the appearance of 18 now-extinct faunal genera. Our analysis suggests that the widespread expansion of humans through North America was a key factor in the extinction of large terrestrial mammals.


A Bayesian age model suggests that human dispersal to the Americas probably began before the Last Glacial Maximum, overlapping with the last dates of appearance for several faunal genera.


  
Changes of crop failure risks in the United States associated with large-scale climate oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Schillerberg, Tayler A.;  Tian, Di
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
climate oscillation  crop failure  Bayesian analysis  maize  winter wheat  the United States  
Will Coral Reefs in the North Atlantic Ocean Bleach During the Next Season? A Probabilistic Answer 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (9)
作者:  Lisboa, D. S.;  Kikuchi, R. K. P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Coral bleaching seasonal forecast  Bayesian Network  SST anomaly  El Nino  Early warning system  Environmental management support  
Monumental architecture at Aguada Fenix and the rise of Maya civilization 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Bedding, Timothy R.;  Murphy, Simon J.;  Hey, Daniel R.;  Huber, Daniel;  Li, Tanda;  Smalley, Barry;  Stello, Dennis;  White, Timothy R.;  Ball, Warrick H.;  Chaplin, William J.;  Colman, Isabel L.;  Fuller, Jim;  Gaidos, Eric;  Harbeck, Daniel R.;  Hermes, J. J.;  Holdsworth, Daniel L.;  Li, Gang;  Li, Yaguang;  Mann, Andrew W.;  Reese, Daniel R.;  Sekaran, Sanjay;  Yu, Jie;  Antoci, Victoria;  Bergmann, Christoph;  Brown, Timothy M.;  Howard, Andrew W.;  Ireland, Michael J.;  Isaacson, Howard;  Jenkins, Jon M.;  Kjeldsen, Hans;  McCully, Curtis;  Rabus, Markus;  Rains, Adam D.;  Ricker, George R.;  Tinney, Christopher G.;  Vanderspek, Roland K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:30/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Archaeologists have traditionally thought that the development of Maya civilization was gradual, assuming that small villages began to emerge during the Middle Preclassic period (1000-350 bc  dates are calibrated throughout) along with the use of ceramics and the adoption of sedentism(1). Recent finds of early ceremonial complexes are beginning to challenge this model. Here we describe an airborne lidar survey and excavations of the previously unknown site of Aguada Fenix (Tabasco, Mexico) with an artificial plateau, which measures 1,400 m in length and 10 to 15 m in height and has 9 causeways radiating out from it. We dated this construction to between 1000 and 800 bc using a Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates. To our knowledge, this is the oldest monumental construction ever found in the Maya area and the largest in the entire pre-Hispanic history of the region. Although the site exhibits some similarities to the earlier Olmec centre of San Lorenzo, the community of Aguada Fenix probably did not have marked social inequality comparable to that of San Lorenzo. Aguada Fenix and other ceremonial complexes of the same period suggest the importance of communal work in the initial development of Maya civilization.


Lidar survey of the Maya lowlands uncovers the monumental site of Aguada Fenix, which dates to around 1000-800 bc and points to the role of communal construction in the development of Maya civilization.


  
Understanding the Impact of Observation Data Uncertainty on Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts Using a Dynamic Hierarchical Model 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (4)
作者:  Das Bhowmik, Rajarshi;  Ng, Tze Ling;  Wang, Jui-Pin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
uncertainty  measurement error  Bayesian  BDHM  forecasting  Streamflow  
Brain expansion in early hominins predicts carnivore extinctions in East Africa 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2020, 23 (3) : 537-544
作者:  Faurby, Soren;  Silvestro, Daniele;  Werdelin, Lars;  Antonelli, Alexandre
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
anthropogenic  bayesian  carnivora  humans  pleistocene  pliocene  PyRate  
A Bayesian Approach for Statistical-Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part II: Idealized Markov Chain Monte Carlo Experiments 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 77 (3) : 1043-1064
作者:  Van Lier-Walqui, Marcus;  Morrison, Hugh;  Kumjian, Matthew R.;  Reimel, Karly J.;  Prat, Olivier P.;  Lunderman, Spencer;  Morzfeld, Matthias
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Atmosphere  Cloud microphysics  Radars  Radar observations  Bayesian methods  Cloud parameterizations  Model errors  
A Bayesian Approach for Statistical-Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 77 (3) : 1019-1041
作者:  Morrison, Hugh;  van Lier-Walqui, Marcus;  Kumjian, Matthew R.;  Prat, Olivier P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Atmosphere  Cloud microphysics  Radars  Radar observations  Bayesian methods  Cloud parameterizations  Model errors  
Probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge extremes in Europe 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (4) : 1877-1883
作者:  Calafat, Francisco M.;  Marcos, Marta
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
sea level  extremes  storm surge  flooding  Bayesian hierarchical model