Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL086442 |
Will Coral Reefs in the North Atlantic Ocean Bleach During the Next Season? A Probabilistic Answer | |
Lisboa, D. S.1,2; Kikuchi, R. K. P.1 | |
2020-05-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Brazil |
英文摘要 | Coral bleaching in the North Atlantic Ocean was modeled based on the historical relationship between reef observations (1987-2011), El Nino indicators and thermal seawater anomalies. The model components were hierarchically organized into a Bayesian network structure according to their level of influence on coral bleaching to generate seasonal predictions to be confirmed (or not) by the near-real-time forecast at similar to 5 km scale. Validations and score steps, used as a criterion for comparison between competing models, proved the viability of the Bayesian approach to perform seasonal forecasts of the bleaching occurrence, achieving an overall hit rate of 84%. Custom models with databases restricted to specific situations are presented as an alternative to improve the accuracy levels but at the cost of the loss of predictive ability. The models were developed to be conceptually simple and useful tools to assist environmental management through an early warning system for coral bleaching. |
英文关键词 | Coral bleaching seasonal forecast Bayesian Network SST anomaly El Nino Early warning system Environmental management support |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000536639500048 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; PATTERNS ; CLIMATE ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279889 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Fed Univ Bahia UFBA, Coral Reef & Global Climate Change Res Grp, Salvador, BA, Brazil; 2.Fed Univ Bahia UFBA, Postgrad Program Geol, Salvador, BA, Brazil |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lisboa, D. S.,Kikuchi, R. K. P.. Will Coral Reefs in the North Atlantic Ocean Bleach During the Next Season? A Probabilistic Answer[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(9). |
APA | Lisboa, D. S.,&Kikuchi, R. K. P..(2020).Will Coral Reefs in the North Atlantic Ocean Bleach During the Next Season? A Probabilistic Answer.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(9). |
MLA | Lisboa, D. S.,et al."Will Coral Reefs in the North Atlantic Ocean Bleach During the Next Season? A Probabilistic Answer".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.9(2020). |
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