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Geography and Morphology Affect the Ice Duration Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Lakes Worldwide 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (12)
作者:  Warne, Connor P. K.;  McCann, Kevin S.;  Rooney, Neil;  Cazelles, Kevin;  Guzzo, Matthew M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25
ice phenology  ice duration  limnology  time series  climate change  
Regime shift of the hydroclimate-vegetation system in the Yellow River Delta of China from 1982 through 2015 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (2)
作者:  Niu, Beibei;  Zhang, Zixuan;  Yu, Xinyang;  Li, Xinju;  Wang, Zhen;  Loaiciga, Hugo A.;  Peng, Sha
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
regime shift  hydroclimate-vegetation system  time series decomposition  structural change  Yellow River Delta  
Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
Local Atmosphere-Ocean Predictability: Dynamical Origins, Lead Times, and Seasonality 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (21) : 7507-7519
作者:  Bach, Eviatar;  Motesharrei, Safa;  Kalnay, Eugenia;  Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atmosphere-ocean interaction  Climate prediction  Statistical techniques  Time series  Short-range prediction  
Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (22) : 7597-7609
作者:  Buerger, G.;  Pfister, A.;  Bronstert, A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Extreme events  Rainfall  Climate change  Statistical techniques  Time series  Stochastic models  
A Time-Varying Causality Formalism Based on the Liang-Kleeman Information Flow for Analyzing Directed Interactions in Nonstationary Climate Systems 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (21) : 7521-7537
作者:  Hagan, Daniel Fiifi Tawia;  Wang, Guojie;  Liang, X. San;  Dolman, Han A. J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Atmosphere-land interaction  Feedback  Soil moisture  Kalman filters  Time series  Climate prediction  
Grizzly bear selection of recently harvested forests is dependent on forest recovery rate and landscape composition 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2019, 449
作者:  Kearney, Sean P.;  Coops, Nicholas C.;  Stenhouse, Gordon B.;  Nielsen, Scott E.;  Hermosilla, Txomin;  White, Joanne C.;  Wulder, Michael A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Ursus arctos  Landsat  Habitat selection  Forest recovery  Forest disturbance  Time series  Spectral recovery  
Spatial patterns of sample entropy based on daily precipitation time series in China and their implications for land surface hydrological interactions 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Zhou, Xiangyang;  Lei, Wenjuan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
China  daily precipitation time series  land surface hydrological interactions  sample entropy  spatial patterns  
Classifying past climate change in the Chew Bahir basin, southern Ethiopia, using recurrence quantification analysis 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2557-2572
作者:  Trauth, Martin H.;  Asrat, Asfawossen;  Duesing, Walter;  Foerster, Verena;  Kraemer, K. Hauke;  Marwan, Norbert;  Maslin, Mark A.;  Schaebitz, Frank
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Paleoclimate dynamics  Eastern Africa  Pleistocene  Holocene  Time-series analysis  Recurrence plot  
Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (9)
作者:  Jackson, Nicole D.;  Konar, Megan;  Debaere, Peter;  Estes, Lyndon
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
algorithm development  global  gridded  probabilistic allocation  crop suitability  agricultural geography  time series