Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3b93 |
Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014 | |
Jackson, Nicole D.1; Konar, Megan1; Debaere, Peter2; Estes, Lyndon3 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Agriculture has substantial socioeconomic and environmental impacts that vary between crops. However, information on how the spatial distribution of specific crops has changed over time across the globe is relatively sparse. We introduce the Probabilistic Cropland Allocation Model (PCAM), a novel algorithm to estimate where specific crops have likely been grown over time. Specifically, PCAM downscales annual and national-scale data on the crop-specific area harvested of 17 major crops to a global 0.5-degree grid from 1961 to 2014. To do this, pixels are assigned into probability clusters based upon crop-specific pixel suitability (based on mean climate and soil characteristics) and gridded historical agricultural areas. PCAM maps compare relatively well with an existing gridded dataset of crop-specific areas circa 2000 (simple matching coefficient value >0.8 for all crops). PCAM estimates compare less well with time series county-level agricultural census data for the United States. Importantly, deviations between census data and PCAM benchmark estimates (driven by soil and climate suitability) can be used to infer the importance of other factors of agricultural production (e.g. labor, agricultural policy, extreme climate) in future work. Our results provide new insights into the likely changes in the spatial distribution of major crops over the past half-century. |
英文关键词 | algorithm development global gridded probabilistic allocation crop suitability agricultural geography time series |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000487216800004 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-USE CHANGE ; CLIMATE ; COVER ; IRRIGATION ; GEOGRAPHY ; NITROGEN ; IMPACTS ; SYSTEMS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186600 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA; 2.Univ Virginia, Darden Sch Business, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA; 3.Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jackson, Nicole D.,Konar, Megan,Debaere, Peter,et al. Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(9). |
APA | Jackson, Nicole D.,Konar, Megan,Debaere, Peter,&Estes, Lyndon.(2019).Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(9). |
MLA | Jackson, Nicole D.,et al."Probabilistic global maps of crop-specific areas from 1961 to 2014".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.9(2019). |
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