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Early climate models successfully predicted global warming 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : 45-46
作者:  Bertolucci, Sergio;  Mulargia, Francesco;  Giardini, Domenico
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

An evaluation of past climate-model forecasts.


Climate models published between 1970 and 2007 provided accurate forecasts of subsequently observed global surface warming. This finding shows the value of using global observations to vet climate models as the planet warms.


  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
作者:  Scudellari, Megan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.


  
Temperature change as a driver of spatial patterns and long-term trends in chironomid (Insecta: Diptera) diversity 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Engels, Stefan;  Medeiros, Andrew S.;  Axford, Yarrow;  Brooks, Stephen J.;  Heiri, Oliver;  Luoto, Tomi P.;  Nazarova, Larisa;  Porinchu, David F.;  Quinlan, Roberto;  Self, Angela E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:14/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Arctic  biodiversity  climate warming  freshwater ecosystems  insects  palaeoecology  Quaternary  
The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) : 3906-3917
作者:  Goode, Andrew G.;  Brady, Damian C.;  Steneck, Robert S.;  Wahle, Richard A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
American lobster  biological thresholds  climate change  ocean warming  regional oceanography  thermal habitat  
Contrasting resistance and resilience to extreme drought and late spring frost in five major European tree species 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) : 3781-3792
作者:  Vitasse, Yann;  Bottero, Alessandra;  Cailleret, Maxime;  Bigler, Christof;  Fonti, Patrick;  Gessler, Arthur;  Levesque, Mathieu;  Rohner, Brigitte;  Weber, Pascale;  Rigling, Andreas;  Wohlgemuth, Thomas
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
climate warming  climatic water balance  dendrochronology  extreme climatic events  frost risk  growing degree-days  tree phenology  tree-ring width  
Accumulation of soil carbon under elevated CO2 unaffected by warming and drought 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (9) : 2970-2977
作者:  Dietzen, Christiana A.;  Larsen, Klaus Steenberg;  Ambus, Per L.;  Michelsen, Anders;  Arndal, Marie Frost;  Beier, Claus;  Reinsch, Sabine;  Schmidt, Inger Kappel
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
climate driver interactions  drought  elevated CO2  FACE  multifactor climate change experiment  soil carbon  warming  
Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Descamps, Sebastien;  Ramirez, Francisco;  Benjaminsen, Sigurd;  Anker-Nilssen, Tycho;  Barrett, Robert T.;  Burr, Zofia;  Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe;  Erikstad, Kjell-Einar;  Irons, David B.;  Lorentsen, Svein-Hakon;  Mallory, Mark L.;  Robertson, Gregory J.;  Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin;  Strom, Hallvard;  Varpe, Oystein;  Lavergne, Sebastien
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
breeding phenology  climate warming  foraging strategy  phylogeny  spring onset  
Nearshore coral growth declining on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) : 3932-3945
作者:  Baumann, Justin H.;  Ries, Justin B.;  Rippe, John P.;  Courtney, Travis A.;  Aichelman, Hannah E.;  Westfield, Isaac;  Castillo, Karl D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Caribbean coral reefs  climate change  ocean warming  Pseudodiploria strigosa  reef-building coral  Siderastrea siderea  skeletal extension  
Experimental warming alters the community composition, diversity, and N-2 fixation activity of peat moss (Sphagnum fallax) microbiomes 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (9) : 2993-3004
作者:  Carrell, Alyssa A.;  Kolton, Max;  Glass, Jennifer B.;  Pelletier, Dale A.;  Warren, Melissa J.;  Kostka, Joel E.;  Iversen, Colleen M.;  Hanson, Paul J.;  Weston, David J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
climate change  diazotroph  microbial diversity  microbiome  moss  Sphagnum  temperature  warming  
Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (6) : 1982-1994
作者:  Bell, James R.;  Botham, Marc S.;  Henrys, Peter A.;  Leech, David, I;  Pearce-Higgins, James W.;  Shortall, Chris R.;  Brereton, Tom M.;  Pickup, Jon;  Thackeray, Stephen J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
climate change  first egg day  first flight  generalized additive mixed models  global warming  temporal trends