Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14592 |
Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century | |
Bell, James R.1; Botham, Marc S.2; Henrys, Peter A.3; Leech, David, I4; Pearce-Higgins, James W.4; Shortall, Chris R.1; Brereton, Tom M.5; Pickup, Jon6; Thackeray, Stephen J.3 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 25期号:6页码:1982-1994 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Scotland |
英文摘要 | Global warming has advanced the timing of biological events, potentially leading to disruption across trophic levels. The potential importance of phenological change as a driver of population trends has been suggested. To fully understand the possible impacts, there is a need to quantify the scale of these changes spatially and according to habitat type. We studied the relationship between phenological trends, space and habitat type between 1965 and 2012 using an extensive UK dataset comprising 269 aphid, bird, butterfly and moth species. We modelled phenologies using generalized additive mixed models that included covariates for geographical (latitude, longitude, altitude), temporal (year, season) and habitat terms (woodland, scrub, grassland). Model selection showed that a baseline model with geographical and temporal components explained the variation in phenologies better than either a model in which space and time interacted or a habitat model without spatial terms. This baseline model showed strongly that phenologies shifted progressively earlier over time, that increasing altitude produced later phenologies and that a strong spatial component determined phenological timings, particularly latitude. The seasonal timing of a phenological event, in terms of whether it fell in the first or second half of the year, did not result in substantially different trends for butterflies. For moths, early season phenologies advanced more rapidly than those recorded later. Whilst temporal trends across all habitats resulted in earlier phenologies over time, agricultural habitats produced significantly later phenologies than most other habitats studied, probably because of nonclimatic drivers. A model with a significant habitat-time interaction was the best-fitting model for birds, moths and butterflies, emphasizing that the rates of phenological advance also differ among habitats for these groups. Our results suggest the presence of strong spatial gradients in mean seasonal timing and nonlinear trends towards earlier seasonal timing that varies in form and rate among habitat types. |
英文关键词 | climate change first egg day first flight generalized additive mixed models global warming temporal trends |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000467441900010 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; BRITISH BUTTERFLIES ; POPULATION DECLINES ; SCALE VARIATION ; SHIFTS ; RESPONSES ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS ; LEPIDOPTERA ; SENSITIVITY |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183815 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Rothamsted Res, Rothamsted Insect Survey, Biointeract & Crop Protect, Harpenden, Herts, England; 2.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England; 3.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, Lancs, England; 4.British Trust Ornithol, Thetford, Norfolk, England; 5.Butterfly Conservat, Wareham, Dorset, England; 6.SASA, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bell, James R.,Botham, Marc S.,Henrys, Peter A.,et al. Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019,25(6):1982-1994. |
APA | Bell, James R..,Botham, Marc S..,Henrys, Peter A..,Leech, David, I.,Pearce-Higgins, James W..,...&Thackeray, Stephen J..(2019).Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,25(6),1982-1994. |
MLA | Bell, James R.,et al."Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 25.6(2019):1982-1994. |
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